Believe it or not, Spring Training is almost over. We're a week from Easter, and just about two weeks from baseball. We've reached the point in camp when the prospects are gone, opt-out dates are mattering, and there's only really a few jobs open. For the Phillies, this means it's time to come back to reality- while it was fun to watch new, younger players that are part of our future, now they are in minor league camp, and it's time to look at the tough season ahead.
Even coming off of a 99 loss season, even with so many new faces, most of the team looks done. There are more locks than not. Most of the roster is set, and there are really only a hand full of positions still up for grabs. Let's take a look at where things are:
Rotation-
From the start, there were four absolute locks- Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Jeremy Hellickson, and Charlie Morton. There were some questions about Eickhoff's health early on, but those seem to be settled for now. That left only two things worth talking about here- the fifth starter and who gets Opening Day.
Opening Day appears to be a battle between Aaron Nola and Jeremy Hellickson. The fans seem to be behind Nola, but my guess is Hellickson gets the nod. Why? The biggest reason is the #2 starter will pitch the home opener, which I think the Phillies see as a bigger deal than Opening Day. The other reason is that I think the Phillies prefer to downplay expectations on Nola this season. This is largely an irrelevant battle though, as both will face a lot of top tier starters this season if they are the first two arms in the rotation, and the rotation moves around all season.
The fifth starter's spot is not irrelevant though. The battle between Vince Velasquez, Adam Morgan, and Brett Oberholtzer has been a fairly productive one this Spring, with all three throwing the ball pretty well. Oberholtzer is slated to throw on back-to-back days this week, seeming to indicate he's going to start out in the bullpen. That leaves Velasquez and Morgan to battle this one out. From the start, I've believed Velasquez was the preference of the Phillies. I don't think he's done anything to change that.
That would leave the following starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, but in the minors: Morgan (most likely), David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez, and Alec Asher. Pitcher Matt Harrison will go on the 60 day DL, opening up one roster spot.
Line-Up-
We knew a lot of the locks from the start. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco had locked down spots last year. Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez were likely to win their full-time jobs. Carlos Ruiz and Cameron Rupp are going to share the catching duties. Despite the solid Spring by Brock Stassi, the Phillies were going to start the season with Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf sharing first base. That gives you a complete infield, plus a center fielder.
The corner outfield jobs were always up for grabs, but it got more murky when Aaron Altherr, a solid favorite to win a job, injured his wrist and had surgery that will keep him out until July at a minimum, and the season possibly. Peter Bourjos always appeared to be favored to win a spot, and that seems even more like a lock now. His initial top competitor for the third starting spot, Cody Asche, has been out all Spring with an oblique injury. I don't think the Phillies ever intended Tyler Goeddel to be an Opening Day starter, but that appears to be where things are headed for now. Darnell Sweeney is still in camp, and could get a look here as well, but is probably better suited as an utility man.
Bullpen-
David Hernandez was always a lock, given his major league contract, so long as he was healthy. He is now healthy, and appears on schedule. Edward Mujica seems like he's destined to be added to the 40 and 25 man rosters next week for Opening Day too. Brett Oberholtzer seems like a lock to be a lefty and long man type out of the pen. I would put Jeanmar Gomez in the locks right now too.
Assuming the Phillies have the 40 man spots to add Andrew Bailey for Opening Day, I would think he's locked up a spot, but they may be short a spot due to the outfielding situation. Bailey's opt-out date is May 1st though, so I would expect he'll be up soon, if not Opening Day. Elvis Araujo and Luis Garcia spent most of last season on the team too, but neither is a lock right now for Opening Day. Mario Hollands hasn't pitched yet, and seems destined for the DL to start the season. Dalier Hinojosa has picked up where he left off last September, impressing in camp. Michael Mariot, Hector Neris, and Colton Murray are all still in camp, but don't seem to have great chances. Daniel Stumpf, a Rule 5 pick, is definitely still in the mix, but may need a strong finish.
For my money, I'd bet on Hinojosa and Stumpf to make this team. I'd also bet that the Phillies figure out a way to make room for Bailey to make this roster. That leaves Araujo, Garcia, Mariot, Neris, Murray, Edubray Ramos, and Jimmy Cordero all in the minor leagues, but on the 40 man roster to start the season.
The Bench-
If you factor in that Rupp and Ruiz are sharing the catching duties, you already have your back-up catcher. The platoon at first between Howard and Ruf also fills a second spot. That leaves three spots on this roster. I would suspect that Andres Blanco is a lock for one of them. I'm also of the opinion that Darnell Sweeney's versatility makes him a lock right now. That leaves one more spot to fill.
That spot must be filled by someone who can play in the outfield. With Altherr and Asche headed for the DL, the Phillies have just three outfielders right now. This would appear to be a battle between Cedric Hunter and David Lough for that spot. Both have had very good Spring Trainings, and the job is temporary anyway, so it's hard to argue with either. Neither currently has a 40 man roster spot, a problem for a team who has only two open ones, and two other players they need to get on the roster (Mujica and Bailey). My guess though is that the Phillies won't go outside the organization looking for a fill-in, because these guys are playing fine, it's a temporary spot, and you would need a 40 man roster spot for whoever you bring in. Give the edge, barely, to Lough right now. Don't completely count out Emmanuel Burriss yet.
Heading to the minors with a 40 man spot are Roman Quinn, Taylor Featherston, and Jorge Alfaro. Headed to the 15 Day DL will be Cody Asche. Headed to the 60 Day DL, opening the second roster spot, will be Aaron Altherr.
Bottom Line-
The Phillies roster is 80% set. The biggest issue facing them is needing a third 40 man spot to fit Mujica, Bailey, and Hunter/Lough/Burriss all on. This means that you should be watching the 40 man spots of Mariot, Garcia, Neris, Gonzalez, Buchanan, and Featherston in the coming days. I suspect the Phillies will DFA someone along the way to picking their final roster.
The other major thing to watch is opt-out dates on some of the non-roster invitees. Some, like J.P. Arencibia, don't have one. Some, like Mujica, do. This will start to matter as the Phillies start trying to build a AAA team. While it's hard to tell what a player will do after spending camp in the majors, I suspect a lot of these players may want to stick around the Phillies, because the roster is by no means a powerhouse. There could be future opportunity.
Spend the next week watching the Velasquez-Morgan battle, the crowded bullpen, and the Hunter/Lough fight. Those battles are still crowded going into the end of camp.
