One thing keeps Ben Simmons from being elite: The 4th quarter

By Brandon Apter, Sports Talk Philly editor

Ben Simmons is having a phenomenal rookie year and has a good chance to win Rookie of the Year if he keeps up his strong play. He has great court vision and has taken the point guard role to heart since stepping on the floor in his first NBA game. As of today, Simmons ranks first among rookies in rebounds (7.7), assists (7.6), double-doubles (26), triple-doubles (7) and minutes (34.9). Let's take a look at some of the deeper, advanced stats to start things off.

One of the best statistics to measure a player's impact on a game is Real Plus Minus. Defined, it measures the player's average impact in terms of net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. In the NBA, average of possession ranges from 97.8-105.2 across the league, making Real Plus Minus (RPM) one of the most called upon advanced stats to tell the story for the way a player impacts a game.

For rookie Ben Simmons, he ranks 35th in the NBA with an RPM of 2.65. The next closest rookie in RPM is Donovan Mitchell, all the way down in 78th. Among point guards, Simmons' RPM is good for 13th, just below Kyrie Irving while his Defensive Real Plus Minus (1.82) is fifth best, just behind Chris Paul. On the offensive end of RPM, Simmons is a bit further back in 77th while his rookie counterpart who scores more is up in the 50's. 

This post will not be comparing Simmons and Donovan Mitchell, because Mitchell is relied on his team to score points while Simmons' scoring is secondary to the rest of what he does. That being said, Ben could use some improvement on the offensive end of things when it comes to scoring.

Whether you enjoy advanced stats or not, the numbers do tell a story. Simmons is a very impact-ful player, among the best at his position especially defensively. Offensively, he falls further back. We know that Simmons' skill set isn't to create his own mid-range shot or measure up from three, but at points during games, the former LSU product seems to disappear offensively…especially late in games when they need a spark. He is the Sixers' point guard and facilitator, but we've all seen how he can take a game over, especially by attacking the basket. At points, it's frustrating to watch him pass up good shot opportunities to find an open teammate. It's unselfish, but at one time or another, you have to realize that 6-7 times out of 10, a drive to the basket is going to result in a made layup or a foul call, sending him to the line.

Tuesday night's Pacers game was a good example of the issues he's still having. Simmons had his seventh triple-double, which is all good and well, but at no point did it seem like he was going to play a part in the team's comeback. After going 3-for-6 in the first half, Simmons took just four shots in the third quarter and zero in the fourth quarter. Over a 9:15 span, he grabbed four rebounds and had two assists, but the offense was clearly in need of a boost in the midst of a turnover-plagued game. Simmons had only two turnovers the entire game and Embiid, who had eight, was carrying the weight of the team with 10 fourth quarter shots. For a guy that wants to be one of the bests in the league, he's still got a way to go in terms of impacting his team with the game on the line.

Since the All-Star Break, the Sixers are 6-5. In the five losses, Simmons has taken a total of four fourth quarter shots compared to 14 during wins. He's taken zero shots in the fourth quarter in two of those losses against teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs (Washington, Indiana). In their first game following the All-Star Break, a one-point victory in Chicago, Ben took five shots in the fourth, showing the ability to come alive down the stretch. His fourth quarter numbers overall this season leave something to be desired and if this team is going to win a playoff series, they will need Simmons to play a bigger part in the offense in games that matter.

Here's a look at some of his situational stats, per Basketball Reference:

Simm

Just looking at the quarter splits first, Ben takes the majority of his shots in the first quarter and it gradually tapers off. I'm keeping in mind that the Sixers have also won more games than they've lost, so I know that less shots as the games go along can also be a part of them winning big. Still, Simmons has taken a total of 825 field goal attempts this season with 21.6 percent of those coming in the fourth, less than any other period. The Sixers have coughed up a lot of leads this season, and have gotten better at it, but Simmons' lack of aggression in the second half, especially in the fourth in those games is one reason they were/are unable to close those games out.

Looking into the second split, Simmons seems to be less aggressive as the team falls behind in games, taking the majority of his attempts while they are ahead or trailing by five points or less. Diving a bit deeper, 27 percent of his shots this season come when the team is trailing by 10 or more points in the fourth quarter and 21.8 percent while they are within 6-10 points of the opposition. Simmons ranks 60th in the NBA in 4th quarter points per game.

In conclusion, the stats show this – when the team is down single digits, especially less than five points, Simmons is more aggressive. The further they go down, the less shots he takes and the less chance they have to win.

Statistics are one thing, but the eye test is another as well. In games like Tuesday against Indiana, even though the Sixers were close at points, the Pacers seemed in control the entire game. Simmons was non-existent when his team was making a push to comeback and he was one of the guys that didn't have turnover issues. At 6-foot-10 and a wing span of over seven feet, Ben should be more aggressive in getting to the basket later in games…even if it means going to the line to earn two. In seven games so far in March, Simmons has only taken 12 trips to the line, making 10 of them. If anything, that success rate should make him more thirsty to work for fouls and get points from the stripe. 

There's no doubting Simmons' skills and abilities. He has unlimited potential, especially if he develops a serviceable jump shot. It's also good to remember that this is his first full year in the NBA and there's room for growth. 2017-18 Ben Simmons isn't going to be the same player next season or even five from now. Simmons is one of the pieces that the Sixers are consider one of their franchise cornerstones now and moving forward, but it is up to him how far he pushes himself to improve and how much he helps push his team to success.. 

 

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