A deep dive into Robert Covington’s value

By: Jesse Larch, Sports Talk Philly editor 

Robert Covington has settled into the Sixers starting lineup over the last two seasons, and has been rewarded with a four-year $62 million contract extension for his development during the dark period of the process. 

Covington has established himself as an effective three-and-D wing in the NBA after coming through the NBA Developmental League as an undrafted free agent.Covington is coming off of a season in which he led the league pass deflections and finished fourth in the NBA in Defensive Player of the Year voting. This season, Covington is playing above his career averages in a number of categories this season, such as assists, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage, and turnovers, in addition to playing close to his career averages in a number of other categories:

  Career Average 2017-18 Average
Points 12.7 12.6
Assists 1.5 1.9
Rebounds 5.5 5.5
FG% 39.6% 40.6
3P% 35.8% 37.0
FT% 82.0% 86.2
Turnovers 1.9 1.8

Despite Covington's performance this season, a recent shooting slump has caused many fans to grow restless with Covington. Covington played well to open the season, but one game in particular can be traced to the start of Covington's slide – November 27 against the Cleveland Cavaliers:

  Pre 11/27 Post 11/27
Points 15.9 11.2
Assists 1.6 2.0
Rebounds 6.0 5.2
FG% 48.0% 37.1%
3P% 46.2% 32.8%
FT% 80.0% 89.9%
Turnovers 1.6 1.9

Two things happened to Robert Covington on November 27 that clearly impacted his season. During the game against Cleveland, Covington chased a loose ball into the crowd and hit his back on the seats and floor behind the Cavaliers' bench. He had to be helped off of the floor and did not return to the game. 

Prior to that game against Cleveland, Covington also was informed that one of his friends had been shot and killed. Despite dealing with a personal tragedy and an injury in his back, Covington soldiered on and did not miss a game at a time when maybe a few days off would have helped him recover mentally and physically. 

Covington's production undeniably dropped off considerably during and after that game in Cleveland, but despite his slump Covington has still produced at a rate which places him among the top players at his position – and in some categories at the top of the league. 

Among NBA small forwards this season Covington ranks 18th in points per game, tied for 10th in rebounds per game, tied for 23rd in assists per game, third in steals per game (1.59), ninth in blocks per game (0.72), and is tied for 12th with four double-doubles. He is third in real plus-minus (3.91, LeBron James is second with a 3.93 rating) and second in defensive real plus-minus (2.89).

Covington ranks 17th in the entire league in steals per game, 21st in real plus-minus, and 16th in defensive real plus-minus, further solidifying his status as one of the best defensive players in all of the NBA. 

Even after his extension that inlcuded a significant raise over his previous salary, he is still a steal with the 22nd highest salary among current NBA small forwards. Covington will make an average of $11. million over the next four seasons. Comparable player salaries at the position include Wilson Chandler ($11.65M), Joe Ingles ($13.0M), Jared Dudley ($10.0M), and Maurice Harkless ($10.5M).

Among those players, Covington proves to be one of the best in his contract bracket, pacing the group in minutes per game, points per game, rebounds per game, steals per game, and defensive rating. 

  Covington Chandler Ingles Dudley Harkless
MPG 32.3 30.8 31.1 13.3 20.7
PPG 12.6 9.9 10.6 2.8 5.6
APG 1.9 2.1 4.2 1.6 0.8
RPG 5.5 5.1 4.1 1.6 2.7
3P% 37.0% 33.7% 44.6% 35.7% 37.0%
STL 1.6 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.8
ORTG 105 106 113 111 107
DRTG 105 113 107 114 106
PER 12.0 10.7 13.5 8.3 10.7
WS 3.9 2.3 4.9 0.5 2.0

 Robert Covington's recent struggles have been difficult to sit through for many, but even with his perceived poor play, he has still put together a strong season so far that outpaces his career numbers despite how bad some people want to say that he is. He is one of the best all-around small forwards in the NBA as well as one of the elite defensive wings currently in the league. 

When you compare Covington to those earning the same amount as him, Covington's jumps off of the charts for his pricetag. Simply put, when other teams commit the same money to a player that the Sixers committed to Robert Covington, they do not get the same level of production. Covington is paid outside of the top-20 at his position, but he is a top-15 small forward in the league providing a bargain for the Sixers.

And for those worried about Covington's production, he has gotten back on track with double-digit scoring efforts in three of the last four games. That includes his most complete effort of the season on Tuesday night against the Charlotte Hornets when Covington scored 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting and played a key role in limiting two-time All Star point guard Kemba Walker to just five points.

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