Anonymous MLB Executive: Phillies will sign either Harper or Machado

 

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote last July that despite one of the worst records in the sport, the Philadelphia Phillies were viewed as a "leviathan-in-training." Less than a year later – with  a new manager and much of their first wave of prospects graduated to the major league level – that training appears to be paying off. The Phillies 14 wins are good for fourth in the National League, and they may still add a significant piece before becoming a leviathan in 2019. 

Robert Murray of FanRag Sports spoke to an anonymous MLB executive that shares his opinion that the Phillies are likely to land one of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado next offseason: 

Machado and Harper are the big fish in this free agent crop and I’m going to go on record right now: One of those two players will be playing in Philadelphia next season.

“They’ll get one,” one baseball executive opined.

This seems to have become a fairly common opinion in baseball circles. Earlier this month, Murray's colleague, Jon Heyman, pegged the Phillies as the favorite to sign Machado. This came a week after he wrote that the Phillies are the third most likely team to land Harper next offseason. ESPN's Buster Olney said in March that he would bet his family's farm that the Phillies will sign one of the two next offseason. 

Both Harper and Machado will reach the open market at age 26. It feels likely that both of the two, should they choose, could get free-agent contracts in excess of $400 million. If it becomes evident that Harper plans to re-sign with the Nationals, it could create a bidding war for Machado, pushing his price-tag closer to $500 million. Machado won't return to Baltimore, but if one team becomes the prohibited favorite to sign him, the same effect could work in Harper's favor. 

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Though both will likely sign record-setting contracts, the risk associated with signing either of the two probably isn't quite as much as one would think. While both will likely sign record-setting 10-year contracts, they will only be 26. If they play out the entirety of the contract, they'll only be in their age-35 season in the final year of their contracts. There are worse things than having a Hall of Fame talent from age 26-35. More likely than that is that Harper and Machado will opt-out of their contracts in their early 30s. With another half decade (give or take) of inflation, they will, at the very least, likely be able to get more money annually on the open market. So the real risk would come when they opt-out of their deal and the Phillies (or any other team) are left to decide on whether to give them another long-term contract. 

Heyman reported in February that should Machado reach free-agency next offseason, the Yankees are viewed as "practically a slam dunk in some quarters" to land his services. USA Today's Bob Nightengale added that Machado, who is playing shortstop full-time in 2018, "would like to be on center stage in a big market," something echoed in Heyman's story. The Orioles inexplicably allowed Machado to get to this point without trading him – an extension was probably never realistic – and Nightengale, too, says that the Yankees are prepared to make a serious push for the three-time All-Star. 

 

The possibility does exist that the Yankees choose to focus their attention elsewhere next free-agency, feeling like Harper and Machado would be luxuries. The Yankees have two stars whose natural position is right field in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, perhaps turning them off to Harper. Machado has made clear his desire to play shortstop moving forward, but the Yankees incumbent shortstop, the 28-year-old DiDi Gregorious, is an early favorite to win American League MVP. Third baseman Miguel Andujar, who MLB Pipeline ranked as the team's No. 4 prospect entering the 2018 season, is hitting .316 in his first extended major league action. The organization's top prospect, Gleyber Torres, was recently promoted and is playing second base, though he's equally capable of playing shortstop and third base. 

Though the guess here is that the Yankees will still play a serious role in the sweepstakes of either Harper or Machado, there does appear to be a scenario where they feel that their lineup is so deep that they are better served making a push for Clayton Kershaw or Dallas Keuchel, both of whom can also be free-agents next offseason. 

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The Nationals will likely be a factor in Harper's free-agency, unlike the Orioles with Machado. However, Heyman also noted in February that the Nationals understand that "it's not too likely that they'll be able to keep him." The Dodgers are viewed by many as the favorite to land Harper. The Dodgers, however, aren't viewed as an overwhelming favorite, like some seem to believe the Yankees are in the Machado sweepstakes

For as productive as the Phillies lineup looks on paper now, it would become that much stronger with either Harper or Machado in it. The Phillies would likely be able to move Odubel Herrera down the lineup, while having Cesar Hernandez (assuming he's not traded), Carlos Santana and one of the two potential free-agents all hit in front of Rhys Hoskins. Signing Harper or Machado could come at the expense of the development of any of Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams, Maikel Franco or J.P. Crawford, though that seems like a deal you would take if it allowed you to land one of the game's elite talents at age 26. 

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