So Long, Old Friend: Phillies Release Chad Durbin
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Ranking the Phillies Prospects, End of May 2013 Edition

I was going through old posts of mine the other day, and found a ranking of prospects that I did in the middle of 2011. There were some names on there that are really interesting now- Pettibone, Hernandez,  De Fratus, and even Galvis and Biddle in my honorable mention area. There were also some real clunkers that I fell in love with at the time- Overbeck, Valle, Aumont, Schwimer, and even Julio Rodriguez. It's amazing how you get some right, and some wrong.

It's also amazing how my feelings on prospects have changed a lot. Numbers are important to me, but they aren't everything. Projections matter too, perhaps more so than what I see.

With that in mind, i'm going to try my hand at this again. I'm using several factors here- projections of eventual talent, proximity to majors, and season results to date. Anyone who hasn't spent the whole season in the majors is eligible for me. Here we go:

  1. Jesse Biddle-LHP- AA Reading- The 21 year old lefty is #89 in BA's top 100 and #61 on MLB's, and he hasn't hurt his case much this year. His line: 3-4, 3.15 ERA, 54.1 IP, 66 K, 27 BB, 3 HR, 1.067 WHIP. That doesn't hurt his cause at all. I place him on a timeline of sometime in 2014. I think his chances of being promoted to AAA this year as better than 50/50.
  2. Cesar Hernandez-2B- AAA Lehigh Valley/Phillies- Before his call-up, Hernandez was sporting a .305 average and .810 OPS on the season, both of which are impressive. He combines 13 extra-base hits with a solid speed and defensive game. He also happens to play a position that will be open next season if Chase Utley walks away.
  3. Maikel Franco-3B- A Clearwater- He's only 20, and maybe I'm getting carried away with this A ball third baseman. Maybe not too. He's got 10 homers, 18 doubles, and a triple. His .850 OPS is driven much by his slugging, but that's not a bad thing at such a young age. He's very impressive.
  4. Roman Quinn-SS- A Lakewood- Roman Quinn is a seriously talented, but far from ready player. He hit his 5th homer tonight, and has raised his average all the way up to the .250 area after spending April around .200. Quinn already has stolen 24 bases too. He's switch-hitting now, and may or may not be a shortstop in the long-term, but he does project to be something special.
  5. Adam Morgan-LHP- AAA Lehigh Valley- Morgan looked great in the first month of the season, and horrible in the second. Now he's having some shoulder discomfort, and we're awaiting word on his condition. With that said, healthy Morgan was making a push to come up. Hopefully he can get healthy and continue to progress. His ceiling is fairly high.
  6. Jon Pettibone-RHP- Phillies/AAA Lehigh Valley- Pettibone struggled through a couple of early starts in AAA and has been up since, suffering his first loss last night. He's approaching the non-prospect/big leaguer point, but I think he'll end up down again this season. He won't do so before having proven he belongs, and will belong again. Pettibone is not a future ace, but he is a solid, major league capable starter who is at his best when guys hit the ball on the ground against him. I think he can do that in the future.
  7. Darin Ruf-1B/LF- AAA Lehigh Valley- He's not the hot hitter he was a year ago, but he still projects to serve some sort of purpose. I reject the over-zealous fans who think he can come up and change the fate of the 2013 team now, but can he be helpful? Can he play some first, play some outfield, and get enough at-bats to have his power help? Sure. He isn't on 40 homer pace this year, but he's still showing nice power to the gaps and hitting plenty of doubles. I think he has some form of future.
  8. Cody Asche-3B- AAA Lehigh Valley- Asche broke out last season, but after just half a season in Reading, was jumped to AAA this season. His .263 average and .744 OPS is holding his own. His defense is improving, but there's a real question in my mind if he's going to be here, or if he'll truly be ready in time for Opening Day 2014. With that said, he's in AAA, and he's playing competitively, so he may have a chance.
  9. Tommy Joseph-C- AAA Lehigh Valley- He was really struggling with the bat before he got his concussion that has him sat down. He's also struggled with defense. Joseph is still someone I really think can grow into being a plus-side catcher, I just wonder if he's ready for 2014, when (I hope) Chooch is gone.
  10. Justin De Fratus-RP- AAA Lehigh Valley/Phillies- I think it suffices to say that he's had a good year, he's back in the big leagues and a lot of fans want him to stay. I like his future. He has a good mental make-up it seems for late innings.
  11. Aaron Altherr-CF- A Clearwater- The 22 year old seems to be breaking out, hitting .318/.371/.514/.886 on the season for the Threshers. With the struggles of the AA center fielders, I think he's on his way to passing them by soon.
  12. Ethan Martin-RHP- AAA Lehigh Valley- Sure, his ERA is over five, but his season has improved a bit this month. The former first-rounder, obtained in the Victorino trade, has to improve his 45 K/29 BB in 49.2 IP. If he does, he has a great arm with which to grow into a starter. If he doesn't, he probably projects as a good back-end of the bullpen arm.
  13. Phillippe Aumont-RP- Phillies/AAA Lehigh Valley- Yes, he pitched bad enough to be sent down, and yes he walked four guys tonight. He's a mess. He's still young, with a great arm. I wouldn't totally write him off yet.
  14. Kelly Dugan-OF- A Clearwater- He hit .300 a year ago with 12 homers. He now is hitting .301 with 5 homers this year. He had an .857 OPS last year, and an .887 OPS this year. He had 33 doubles last year too. The former first pick of the Phillies is making a push through the system now.
  15. Brody Colvin-RHP- AA Reading- I've always liked his arm, and I thought he looked really good  in the exhibition game against AAA Lehigh Valley this year, the first time I saw him live. Then he went on the DL and I thought he might be done. He's doing some bullpen work now, and he's putting up decent numbers in AA mixing the two roles. He may end up having a very good bounce back year.
  16. Shane Watson-RHP- A Lakewood- The 19 year old was the first Phillies pick in 2012. He's struggled a little so far, but that's to be expected in his first trip into minor league ball at the full season level.
  17. Mike Stutes-RP- AAA Lehigh Valley/Phillies- He may not be back down again now. Hopefully he'll grown into being a reliable middle-reliever.
  18. Jake Diekman-RP- AAA Lehigh Valley- Diekman has a good arm, but is in an important year to show that he can be reliable enough to be on the big league club.
  19. Cameron Rupp-C- AA Reading- I think we're seeing a solid back-up catcher in the making in the big leagues. Rupp's .256 average isn't lighting the world on fire, but his .841 OPS and 8 homers are pretty impressive. He may be able to help push Joseph.
  20. Mitch Walding-3B- A Lakewood- Walding hasn't blossomed yet, but his 10 doubles are pretty solid for a 20 year old, second year kid. 
  21. Tyler Cloyd-RHP- AAA Lehigh Valley/Phillies- I don't think Cloyd's going to quite cut it as a starter, but he will be alright at making spot starts and being a long man in the bullpen. I always root for guys who are command pitchers.
  22. Cameron Perkins-OF- A Clearwater- He's hitting .344 with a .913 OPS and 25 extra-base hits. He hit .304 last year. He's 22 though, so it's time to bust out, and he is.
  23. Joe Savery-RP- AAA Lehigh Valley/Phillies- Savery's having a good year, there's just a question of his ability to really make it in the bigs. 
  24. Carlos Tocci-OF- A Lakewood- Yes, I know, he's better than this. He's also like super, super, super young, and far, far away from the big leagues. Don't worry, I know he'll move up the list. I'm not even watching his stats much yet, and won't really this year. His ceiling is as high as any on here.
  25. Sebastian Valle-C- AA Reading- His stock is way down, but not as far as his average in AA. He just seems broken by losing out to Joseph. With that said, I still think he has value, and could break out at any time.


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