Pickin on the NFL: Week 4 Fantasy plays & Odds/Lines

Ticket

The back-ups cometh.  Week 4 in the NFL brings the first round of bye-weeks.  If you’ve got any Patriots or Titans on your starting roster, time to go to the bench or waiver wire.  UPDATE: According to NFL spokesman Greg Aiello, there is a chance the Eagles vs. Washington-football-club game could be moved to Week 8 because of the threat of a few showers.  So if you have Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Darren Sproles, or Jordan Matthews then you should hold off on setting your lineup. 

  • Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF): He is the fifth highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football right now.  The Giants, defensively, are…not great.
  • Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB): Start until further notice & despite ProFootball Focus ratings.
  • Andy Dalton (QB, CIN): Kansas City got blown away on Monday Night Football.  They’re going to be tired.  They’re on the road again.  They lost starting cornerback Phillip Gaines.  Who is going to cover AJ Green…rookie Marcus Peters?
  • AJ Green (WR, CIN): See what I did there?
  • Steve Smith (WR, BAL): That Pittsburgh secondary is abysmal.
  • Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI):  Washington doesn’t have a great pass defense & Matthews is the only viable pass catcher in this offense.
  • Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT):  With Big Ben sidelined, and soggy field conditions, look for Tomlin to lean on his Bell cow Thursday night.
  • Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR): He will always be limited by the fact that Cam is the largest rushing threat the Panthers have.  This week the Panthers go against a bottom-5 rushing defense in Tampa Bay. 
  • Latavius Murray (RB, OAK): With Carr & Cooper opening up the air attack, rushing lanes should open against a more-than-suspect Bears rushing defense.
  • Greg Olsen (TE, CAR): He is going to have a monster game against a poor Tampa Bay defense. He continues to be Cam’s (and only) go-to-catcher.
  • Travis Kelce (TE, CIN): Until Alex Smith proves to me that he will go to a WR consistently, Kelce is my guy on this offense.  Maclin had a nice second half against the Packers.  Let’s see him do it on the reg.
  • Charles Clay (TE, BUF): He is going to tear apart the inside of the soft Giants defense.
  • Matt Bryant (K, ATL): He’ll be playing indoors.  Atlanta’s offense is clicking right now.  Houston will play with a lot of pride at home.  If the Texans can keep Atlanta out of the end zone, could be a big scoring day for the kicker.
  • Carolina Defense: versus the Jags…lol.

 

In last week’s Vegas Fix, I went 2-1: correctly picking the Steelers (-2) over the Rams, and the Falcons (-2) over the Cowskirts.  The Colts won but let me down…though probably not as much as themselves or their fathers.  2015 Vegas Fix record: 4-3.  Need to get farther above .500.  It’s week four and there’s a winner in every game: how much could these games win you?

  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+3): For the third week in a row, since we started this post, I’m black-and-yellow black-and-yellow.  At some point they’ll let me down, sure…but as a home-dog on Thursday night?  Michael Vick has won games in this league and, despite his age, I think the Steelers offense is good to keep it within a field goal.  I am not sure how good Baltimore is, but the record says they are 0-3.  The schedule says they are away against a hated division rival & on a short week.  I just don’t trust them; certainly not enough to win by 4 or more.
  • Kansas City at Cincinnati (-4): Kansas City got embarrassed by the Packers offense on Monday night.  Short week + second straight week on the road + (Bengals defense > Packers defense) = 5 point win, at least, for Cincy.
  • Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay: This is the best defense that rookie signal-caller Jameis Winston has faced yet…and it isn’t close.  Believe it or not, the Panthers are going to start off 4-0 easily.  That’s with no viable receiving threat.  (Note: Cam significantly better than Sam.)
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