Pickin on the NFL: Week 5 Fantasy & Odds/Lines

Week Four saw some ups & downs in our fantasy advice. We hit huge on a few guys: Le’Veon Bell, Charles Clay, & the Panthers defense/ST. On the flip side, there were a lot guys that hugely disappointed: Latavius Murray, Jonathan Stewart, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Olsen, & all the WRs. Bad week. Such is life in a world where insider trading affects daily fantasy leagues, I suppose. Just not fair…and, yet, we continue to postulate. Guys to rely on we hope live up to the hype this weekend:

• Tom Brady (QB, NE): Give an angry HOFer a week-and-a-half to prep for the Cowboys and see what happens.
• Drew Brees (QB, NO): Will the confidence from last Sunday night’s win carry over against an Eagles defense significantly beat up on defense?  Probably. The Eagles may stop the run, but Brees should have a day.
• Jamaal Charles (RB, KC): KC will get back in the win column soon.  Going against a pathetic Bears defense will help. It may be milking a big lead or to establish the pass but Charles should get his on Sunday.
• Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL): I don’t know if he can replicate last Sunday’s production on a weekly basis, but I like his chances to do so against the Redskins.
• Julio Jones (WR, ATL): The Redskins gave up long touchdowns to Riley Cooper & Miles Austin…so, yeah, Jones should produce.
• Keenan Allen (WR, SD): The #1 WR on any team should have a big day against that Steelers defense. Especially the ones on the receiving end of Phillip Rivers passes.
• Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC): Same logic as with Charles above. Chicago was horrible before trading away their pass rush. Alex Smith should have time.
• Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE): Against the Cowboys (possibly without Sean Lee)…yes, please.
• Charles Clay (TE, BUF): The Titans don’t do well with pass-catching TE threats. Watkins, McCoy, Williams all may be down. Someone needs to make a play.
• Chandler Catanzaro (K, ARI): Cardinals, angry after a loss, playing indoors against a team they should score on.
• Cardinals Defense: The Lions…woof.

In last week’s Vegas Fix, Cincinnati & Carolina covered their respective spreads.  Those Steelers, on the other hand, were getting a three-spot & managed to lost to Baltimore 23-20. Who likes a push? Mostly, no one. The way I see it, anytime Vegas doesn’t take you, it’s an opportunity to take them later.  After going 2-0-1 in Week 4, we’re 6-3-1 on the season.  These are the games I like this weekend:

• St. Louis at Green Bay (-9.5): This may seem like a big line to cover for a Packers team that only managed a 17-3 win at San Francisco last weekend. Add to that, St Louis’ gutsy win in Arizona last week—not to mention their home victory over Seattle in Week 1—and the line looks larger than it is. I like Green Bay to cover this spread hosting a team that is due for a let-down and playing on the road in consecutive weeks.
• New Orleans (+6) at Philadelphia: That Eagles offense is downright abysmal right now. They could be playing without Jason Peters: forcing yet another backup into a starting role. If the Cowboys managed 115 rushing yards. Do you think the Eagles paltry rushing attack will manage more? If they can’t run, is it likely Sam Bradford is beating anybody by more than six points? Also, Drew Brees. UPDATE: This game is now Saints (+4.5)…still, I like NO to cover.
• New England (+8.5) at Dallas: Bill Belichick has had 10 days to prep for the Cowboys. Does anyone thing Brandon Weeden has a chance against that fundamental fact? To say the Cowboys are banged up on defense is a laughable understatement. All of that pales in comparison to this: Tom Brady is angry and wants everyone to know it.