Well last week didn’t exactly go as I had expected. Easily the worst week of the NFL year to date for this column: going 1-1-1 against the spread. Let’s look at what went down. First, Arizona went into Cleveland and won 34-20. The Cardinals were actually down 20-10 but must have remembered they were playing the Browns at halftime: outscoring Cleveland 24-0 after the break. The Baltimore Ravens were laying a field goal at home and managed the push: beating San Diego 29-26. Then there’s the Green Bay Packers. They ran into a buzz-saw in Denver & lost 29-10, despite being a three-point favorite. Unpredictable, this gambling game, sometime…and, yet, we consider the following:
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-11): So the Browns came back down to Earth, huh? They were a weekly darling to win outright just three short weeks ago. Now? McCown out (concussion), Manziel in. The Bengals are going to destroy this team on Thursday night: Johnny Football, or not.
Green Bay at Carolina (+3): The Packers are still viewed as the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC. The offense may not be humming as it has in past years. Come the playoffs, Rodgers & Co. will have it together and be a force. Carolina just keeps pounding. That rushing attack & that defense will keep them viable. Cam, for all his praise, is not playing statistically significantly better than Colin Kaepernick is was. The WRs will be a problem eventually. The punter is a real issue. The Packers are the better team in the long run but Carolina should keep it very close on Sunday in Charlotte.
Washington at New England (-14): The Patriots would win this game with practice squad players if Belichick were coaching. This is a big line, though, especially with a team coming off a bye week. Do yourself a favor and take the moneyline but leave the spread alone.
Oakland (+4.5) at Pittsburgh: Losing Le’Veon Bell is huge. Fantasy experts seem to think that DeAngelo Williams will pick up all the slack. He very well may. That isn’t where my concern lay. Did you see what the Oakland Raiders did on offense facing one of the better defenses in the NFL? They amassed 34 points on 451 total yards (7.4 yards per play) and no turnovers. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t nearly what New York’s is. Oakland may win this outright. Incidentally, the over (48 doesn’t look terrible either).
St Louis (+3) at Minnesota: Last week, I had both these teams pegged wrong. The Rams handled the 49ers at home. I had the Bears winning a close one at home over the Vikings. I was closer here as the Bears lost in overtime, 23-20. This week, the Vikings get the home-team treatment and are favored by a field goal. I’ll take the Rams & the road points.
Miami at Buffalo (-3): The honey moon phase is over in South Beach. They had a two week run—after Joe Philbin’s firing & coming out of the bye week—where they grabbed a couple wins against bad teams. Last week, they got waxed by the best team in the NFL. Buffalo is coming off a bye week & is healthy. I’ll ride Rex Ryan’s guys this week.
Atlanta (-7) at San Francisco: The 49ers will almost assuredly be awarded the first pick in the 2016 NFL draft. They are a laughing-stock. Atlanta is going to the playoffs. The Falcons just lost at home to Tampa Bay. They’ll be angry and rookie head coach Dan Quinn knows San Francisco well. It’ll be amazing if it isn’t more than a touchdown.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay (+3): The home dog is coming together under the rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers got their signature win last week in Atlanta. The Giants are on the road for the second straight week: having lost a record-setting shootout in New Orleans last week. This is likely to be another high-scoring affair. I’ll take Eli Manning (believe it or not) over the rookie in a must-win road game to keep pace in the NFC East.
Denver (-5) at Indianapolis: If you can get this game at Broncos laying 5, you’re doing yourself a disservice to not take it. That’s an afternoon on a porch swing bet…no worries. The Colts look terrible & TY Hilton may now be hurt. Peyton looked better—though not great—at Green Bay.
Philadelphia at Dallas (+3): Vegas is putting little stock in how Dallas performed last week hosting Seattle. In my opinion, they’re putting too much stock in the regenerative power of a bye week for the Eagles. I think this game is close and am, quite honestly, surprised Dallas isn’t a home favorite. Matt Cassel is exactly the kind of quarterback that can give the Eagles defense problems. He is functionally mobile. On 3rd & long, he can scramble for a first down if the Eagles linebackers get their backs turned to the LOS: something they’ve been known to do in the past. Dez has a week under him and the cornerbacks continue to be a problem. This isn’t as clear cut as some people think…but I hope I’m wrong.
Chicago at San Diego (-4): Melvin Gordon is banged up with a nagging ankle injury. Philip Rivers is due for another 60 pass attempt game. Matt Forte isn’t playing. Jay Cutler is due for a 60 pass attempt game. This may be a MNF game very few people actually watch. San Diego ought to win the home game.
Official Week 9 Picks Against the Spread:
Denver (-5) at Indianapolis
St. Louis (+3) at Minnesota
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-11)
Oakland (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
ATS Season record: 11-7-2
