More and more, it seems that the fate of the 2015-16 Philadelphia Flyers will come right down to the final weekend of the season. While most of the focus is on whether the Flyers can beat out the Detroit Red Wings for the lower wildcard seed in the Eastern Conference, there is actually a host of different scenarios that could see the Flyers earn a wildcard spot — possibly even the higher wildcard position — or miss the playoffs.
At least the Flyers control their own destiny if they win their own games.
Temporarily, the Flyers hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by virtue of having the same number of points as Detroit (87) in one fewer game played (75 for Philadelphia, 76 for Detroit). The games played will, of course, even out to 82 on April 10. The Red Wings currently hold an end-of-season tiebreaker advantage of 36 regulation and overtime wins (ROW) to 35 by the Flyers.
ROW is the NHL's primary tiebreaker in case of a tie in points. If that is also a dead heat, head-to-head record and then goal differentials would be the secondary and tertiary tiebreaker. The Flyers hold advantages in both.
On Tuesday night, the Flyers have an idle night on the schedule. There are three games in the NHL docket that have direct bearing on how the Flyers will be situated before they take to the Wells Fargo Center ice on Wednesday to play the powerhouse Washington Capitals.
Detroit, which squeaked out a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday, are on the road to play the Montreal Canadiens. If Detroit loses in regulation, they will remain in an 87-point dead heat with the Flyers but Philly will hold two games in hand. If Detroit earns a regulation tie (i.e., loses in overtime or via shootout), they'll be one point ahead of the Flyers but with Philly holding two games in hand. A Detroit regulation or OT win puts them two points ahead of the Flyers and provides a two ROW tiebreaker edge. A Detroit shootout win has the same immediate effect on the Flyers but the Wings would still only have a one ROW edge in the event of a points tie.
In the meantime, the Flyers will also be watching the outcome of the Boston Bruins' road game against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday every bit as intently as the Red Wings will be sneaking peaks at the scoreboard. There is a chance that the Red Wings could jump from being out of playoff position to being in automatic playoff position for holding third place in the Northeast Division in one night.
Here's how: Both Detroit and the Flyers are currently one point behind Boston. If the Bruins lose to the Devils in regulation and the Red Wings defeat the Canadiens, Boston will slide out of third in the Atlantic and into the lower wildcard seed. But the Flyers will be looming, having played two fewer games than the Bruins. The Bruins, like the Red Wings, hold a 36-35 ROW advantage on the Flyers at present.
The ideal Tuesday night scenario for the Flyers would be for both Detroit and Boston to lose in regulation. That would open up more possibilities for the Flyers to gain at least the lower wildcard seed by the end of the season. The Red Wings have one head-to-head game apiece left against the Flyers (in Detroit on April 6) and the Bruins (in Boston on April 7) while the Flyers have finished their season series with Boston.
In the meantime, there's a third game on Tuesday night of keen interest to the Flyers: the New York Islanders host the Carolina Hurricanes. Without much fanfare, the Flyers have moved to within two points of the Islanders, who have been surpassed by the Pittsburgh Penguins for third place in the Metropolitan Division and now presently cling to the higher wildcard seed in the East.
The Islanders currently have one game in hand on the Flyers, which will even out after the Isles play the Canes. If New York loses in regulation to Carolina, the door for the Flyers to push for the higher wildcard spot opens a bit further. The Islanders hold a 36-35 ROW edge on the Flyers. The teams will play head-to-head in Brooklyn on April 10 to close out the regular season. The game could end up determining which team gets into the playoffs and which one is out or it also could be the difference-maker between which one gets the higher wildcard series and plays the Northeast Division winner (likely either the Florida Panthers or Tampa Bay Lightning) in the first round of the playoffs and which gets President's Trophy winning Washington.
Incidentally, sometimes the best possible time to catch an elite team on the regular season schedule is when it already has its playoff spot locked up and there are still a reasonably high number of games left on the schedule. While Washington will try to enter the playoffs having finished the regular season with authority it's tough to stay "up" for every single game for 60 minutes when there are still seven games left to go. In a weird way, the elite teams and the spoiler teams who've already been eliminated from the postseason picture often start to temporarily resemble one another down the stretch. Both are dangerous opponents for different reasons.
Bill Meltzer is a columnist for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @billmeltzer.
