Following the Philadelphia Phillies 2007-2011 run of National League dominance, the team has suffered through six consecutive non-winning seasons, the most recent five of which have been losing seasons. You wouldn't expect the year after a 66-96 season to be the year that trend is bucked, but the Phillies were 37-38 after the All-Star Break in 2017. They'll have a full year of Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro in 2018. General manager Matt Klentak signed Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana this offseason, giving rookie manager Gabe Kapler two veterans presences in an otherwised inexperienced clubhouse.
There's reason, for the first time in over half of a decade, for Phillies fans to be excited entering the season. How excited they should be is the question.
The Phillies over/under for wins in 2018 is 75.5, per Bovada. FanGraphs Depth Charts seems to think that over/under is reasonable, as they project the Phillies will go 76-86 in 2018. PECOTA, however, projects that the Phillies will go 81-81, topping the New York Mets for second place in the National League East.
We polled our SportsTalkPhilly.com staff on how many games they believe the club will win in 2018. The question produced a spread that you don't normally see when discussing how many games a team will win before a season:
Tim Kelly, Managing Editor
Record Prediction: 80-82
While an easy April schedule may allow the Phillies to get off to a hot start, how the team's starting rotation fares will ultimately decide whether they are able to make a postseason push. Nick Pivetta flashed an improved pitching arsenal this spring, and will need to take a step forward, along with Vince Velasquez, if the Phillies are going to take a drastic step forward this year. Jerad Eickhoff will also need to bounce-back from a disappointing 2017 season once he returns from his lat strain. The Phillies pitching staff is a year or two away from being ready to pitch in the postseason. The lineup and bullpen have the chance to be very good, however, which could allow the team to look like a playoff contender at times
Matt Rappa, Managing Editor
Record Prediction: 86-76
Last season, there was a lot of talk about potential, just as there is this season. The Phillies have improved the lineup with homegrown talent — a full season of Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, J.P. Crawford and now Scott Kingery should provide a balanced lineup.
It’s the pitching that concerns me. For the Phillies to be a plus-.500 team, and therefore a possible contender, a lot rides on Jake Arrieta being the pitcher the Phillies paid him to be. Aaron Nola is a solid No. 2 starter.
After that, it’s essentially the same cast of characters that has been average at best. Either there will be major advancement or it will be another summer of waiting out the rebuild. The Phillies will have a better bullpen that should be able to close out more games, but they will need a lead into the late innings, and the starting pitching just doesn’t cut it for me.
I don’t want to take away from what Matt Klentak has done with the lineup or the addition of Arrieta, so I’ll give the Phillies a vote of confidence and say they finish over .500, but barely. An 82-80 record may very well keep them in the running for a wildcard, but the Phillies aren’t quite there just yet.
I believe that the Phillies glut of young prospects will start to bear fruit this season. The past few seasons have given nearly every prospect in the upper levels of the Phillies farm system some valuable experience at the major league level, and that experience should begin to pay off.
Health is an issue that is already impacting the pitching of the roster, but with a lot of young pitchers waiting to prove themselves in the upper levels of the minor leagues, I think that .500 is a bit below expectations. With the Phillies set to play six series against a desolate Marlins team and six against the injury-prone Mets (who do not have a ton of young prospects ready to jump in at the Major League level), the team has a good shot at winning a lot of divisional games and performing better than they have the past few seasons.
