By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
At the outset of the Philadelphia Phillies 2018 season, we were pretty sure of one thing – the offense was going to thrive. The bullpen, on paper, had a chance to be pretty good, though key pieces like Luis Garcia, Edubray Ramos and Adam Morgan had been inconsistently effective leading up to the 2018 season. And the starting rotation, behind Aaron Nola, was a major question mark.
Well, go figure, through the first month of the season, the Phillies starting pitching staff has been one of the best in the sport, posting a 3.37 FIP and 3.50 ERA. Sure, Nola has been good, but Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez have arguably been as good – if not better. Since a meltdown in the team's Opening Day loss, the bullpen – led by Victor Arano, of all people – has been very good and figures to get better when Pat Neshek and Mark Leiter Jr. return.
The offense has been…interesting. The Phillies approach at the plate has been tremendous, as Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana have led a charge to see more pitches than the team has in previous seasons. The Phillies are scoring 4.88 runs per game, which is up from 4.26 in 2017. With that, though, the Phillies are striking out 10.21 times per game, which is the third worst number in the league. The Phillies are hitting .235 as a team, which is 18th best in the MLB and down from the .250 that they hit over the course of the 2017 season.
So below, nearly one month into the season, is a look at how valuable each Phillies regular has been in terms of dollars and fWAR. The results, as you might imagine, are all over the place.
Jorge Alfaro – Catcher
Dollar Value in 2017: $5.1 million
Dollar Value in 2018: $-2.0 million
fWAR in 2017: 0.6
fWAR in 2018: -0.3
Jorge Alfaro's single against Dillon Peters and the Miami Marlins on April 7 registered at 116.6 miles-per-hour off the bat. According to Statcast, that's the hardest hit non-home run thus far in the 2018 season. That's about all that has worked in the favor of the 24-year-old at the plate.
After a successful – albeit brief – stint at the major league level late in the 2017 season, Alfaro has struggled mightily at the beginning of his first full season in the major leagues. In 49 at-bats, Alfaro is batting just .163. He's already struck out 25 times, giving him an astronomical 46.3 strikeout percentage in the small sample size that he has thus far.
It was perhaps curious at the beginning of the season that Andrew Knapp seemed to be splitting starts with Alfaro, long thought to be the team's long-term catcher. Alfaro's start has made the platoon easier to believe.
Andrew Knapp – Catcher
Dollar Value in 2017: $5.8 million
Dollar Value in 2018: $-0.1 million
fWAR in 2017: 0.7
fWAR in 2018: 0.0
Alfaro's slow start – along with Knapp being a left-handed hitter – has given the 26-year-old a chance to play much more in the first month of the season than many anticipated. His production, both at the plate and behind it, has been disappointing thus far.
Knapp has slashed .200/.289/.250 with a .242 wOBA and -2.7 oWAR offensively. By no means was Knapp wasn't a superstar offensively in 2017 – he posted a -1.1 oWAR – but he slashed .257/.368/.368 and walked an impressive 31 times. Thus far in 2018, his walk rate has dropped from 15.2 percent to 11.1 percent, which feels rather important consider his on-base percentage was the most redeeming part about him offensively in 2017.
Behind the plate, Knapp has had a rough start to his second major league season. He's already made four errors – including a costly throw into the outfield in the team's Opening Day meltdown against the Atlanta Braves – as many as he made the entire 2017 season. Knapp allowed three passed balls in 2017, and has already allowed two during the 2018 season.
The Phillies would probably prefer that Alfaro seizes three-quarters of the playing time behind the plate. Thus far, Alfaro's been a better fielder than Knapp, but is striking out at too high of a clip to play regularly. But that has coincided with Knapp struggling to open the season, leaving Gabe Kapler with his hands tied.
Carlos Santana – First Base
Dollar Value in 2017: $24.2 million
Dollar Value in 2018: $-0.4 million
fWAR in 2017: 3.0
fWAR in 2018: 0.0
Statistically, Santana, who signed a three-year/$60 million free-agent deal with Phillies this offseason, has been very disappointing. There's reason to think that won't continue, however.
While the 32-year-old has struggled to a .171 average in his first month in red pinstripes, his world-class plate discipline has traveled with him from Cleveland. He's seeing 4.24 pitches-per-plate-appearance, which is up from his career average of 4.21. Santana has walked 16 times already, helping him to keep his on-base percentage above .300, despite the extremely low batting average.
Much has also been made of how unlucky Santana thus far. Statcast seems to back that up, as Santana is batting .171, but has an expected batting average (which is based on how likely each ball he has hit is to lead to him recording a hit) of .275. Santana has also had quite a few balls that have turned into fly ball outs that missed being home runs by mere feet, instead serving as sacrifice flies (more on that in a minute). His expected slugging percentage screams that he's been unlucky, as it comes in at .548, 243 points higher than the .305 slugging percentage that he currently has.
There's something else Santana has brought to the Phillies lineup that they've lacked in past years – a professional hitter. Santana is fifth in the majors with three sacrifices flies. He's displayed an ability to shorten up his swing with two strikes and sacrifice himself to advance runners from second to third and from third to home. It doesn't matter who the manager is – Larry Bowa, Charlie Manuel, Pete Mackanin or Gabe Kapler – that's something extremely valuable to bring to a major league team.
Cesar Hernandez – Second Base
Dollar Value in 2017: $26.5 million
Dollar Value in 2018: $6.7 million
fWAR in 2017: 3.3
fWAR in 2018: 0.8
If Cesar Hernandez has stopped to look over his shoulder at any time over the past year, he's done a good job of hiding it.
After two consecutive seasons of being worth over three wins, Hernandez has picked right up where he left off. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has already walked 18 times, is hitting .310 and has a .425 on-base percentage. That on-base percentage is currently second among qualified second baseman, trailing only future Hall of Famer Robinson Cano.
Is Scott Kingery's long-term future at the position that Hernandez is currently occupying? Probably. Should the Phillies answer the phone on any calls they get for Hernandez? You bet. But unless they are blown away by an offer, Hernandez is forcing himself, at the very least, into the discussion for the next few seasons. He remains under control through 2020, and given the Phillies hot start, it's seems fair to think they could make the postseason a time or two before he becomes eligible for free-agency.
J.P. Crawford – Shortstop
Dollar Value in 2017: $4.1
Dollar Value in 2018: -1.0
fWAR in 2017: 0.5
fWAR in 2018: -0.1
Crawford continues to be a very hard player to evaluate. On paper, he's had a fairly disastrous start to his first full season in the major leagues. He's slashing .183/.234/.317 with a -3.3 oWAR and a 27.3 percent strikeout percentage. Crawford's saving grace through any offensive struggles that he's had throughout his ascension to the major leagues has been his ability to work walks, but his walk percentage is at just 6.1 percent, down from the other-worldly 18.4 percent that he posted in his 23-game stint at the major league level in 2017.
Still, just as a dreadfully slow start looked as though it could push Crawford to the bench (or even Triple-A), he made an adjustment to his swing. Ben Harris of The Athletic wrote a tremendous piece about it. Just as he made that adjustment, he had a four-game stretch against the the Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays, where he hit two colossal home runs and drove in five RBIs, while also walking twice.
Will things ever come together consistently for the former first-round pick at the plate? It depends upon who you ask. The feeling here is that Crawford's flashes of upside make it worth continuing to give him regular at-bats. Things may not come together, but it's impossible to look at what DiDi Gregorious is doing in his late 20s with the New York Yankees, and wonder if one day things won't click for Crawford.
Maikel Franco – Third Base
Dollar Value in 2017: $-3.7 million
Dollar Value in 2018: $0.8 million
fWAR in 2017: -0.5
fWAR in 2018: 0.1
In SportsTalkPhilly.com's 2018 season preview, I predicted that in 2018, Franco would show some flashes that would lead observers to wonder if things had finally clicked for him. And then he would also show flashes of the 2016 version of himself, who did hit 25 home runs and drive in 88 RBIs, but was overly pull-happy and struggled to keep the ball off the ground. So far, that prediction seems fairly accurate.
Franco, who has also competed with the aforementioned Kingery for playing time, is slashing .250/.289/.397 with two home runs and 18 RBIs. Franco hit two home runs and drove in 10 runs in a three-game series against the Miami Marlins earlier this month, but with the exception of that three-game stretch, he's largely been underwhelming again. He currently has a -1.1 oWAR and while he's slightly increased his flyball percentage from 2017, he's also putting the ball on the ground more than he did a year ago.
Given his natural power and ability to put together hot streaks offensively, there will always be a place for Franco on a major league roster. But for much of his career, he's been a below-average fielder and someone that doesn't get on base frequently enough to make his power potential worth regularly putting into the lineup. With Hernandez pushing his way into the team's long-term future, Kingery proving capable of handling third base and Manny Machado eligible for free-agency this offseason, Franco is running out of time.
Scott Kingery – Super Utility
Dollar Value in 2017: N/A
Dollar Value in 2018: $2.4 million
fWAR in 2017: N/A
fWAR in 2018: 0.3
In the Phillies three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, Kingery homered twice – including a grand slam – and drove in six runs. Outside of the series against the Reds, Kingery is hitting under .230 with zero home runs and six RBIs. He's currently in the midst of of a 2-for-26 slump.
It hasn't been all bad for Kingery, though. Despite starting just one game at his natural position of second base, the former second-round pick has posted a 1.3 dWAR. He's displayed a strong enough arm to more than hold his own at shortstop, third base and in the outfield. That's a very encouraging sign, especially when you consider Cesar Hernandez may hang around for a few years.
Perhaps it's because of how well Kingery played at every level of the minor leagues. Perhaps it's because he had two consecutive impressive Spring Trainings at the major league level. Or perhaps it's because he signed a six-year extension prior to ever playing a game at the major league level. In any event, it's too early to have any sort of worries about Kingery. He's 23, checked off nearly every major milestone a young player hopes to and has displayed a willingness to be flexible for the betterment of the team. He'll be fine.
Rhys Hoskins – Left Field
Dollar Value in 2017: $17.4
Dollar Value in 2018: $10.3
fWAR in 2017: 2.2
fWAR in 2018: 1.3
As I noted in this week's first edition of Phillies Nuggets, Hoskins was historically good through his first 70 major league games. As David Murphy of The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote earlier this month, it isn't too early to call the 25-year-old a superstar.
Most preseason projections suggested Hoskins would hit between .260 and .270 in his first full season in the major leagues. It's only been one month, but Hoskins is slashing .338/.495/.608 with a 1.103 OPS. Hoskins has four home runs and 19 RBIs, but he's so much more than just a slugger. On top of the .338 batting average he has, Hoskins leads the Phillies with 22 walks. His willingness to take a walk and keep the line moving if teams are going to pitch around him makes him that much scarier of an offensive force.
It's also worth noting that Hoskins is doing this while adjusting to playing left field on a full-time basis. Even with as dominant as he was in his first 50 major league games in 2017, his overall offensive splits dropped at a fairly alarming rate (in an admittedly small sample) when he played left field, as opposed to first base. Hoskins is playing left field almost exclusively in 2018, and his offensive splits thus far put him into the National League MVP race.
Odubel Herrera – Center Field
Dollar Value in 2017: $23.0
Dollar Value in 2018: $5.8
fWAR in 2017: 2.9
fWAR in 2018: 0.7
Odubel Herrera may giveth and taketh, but the 26-year-old continues to give more than he takes.
While Herrera deserved to be criticized for his baserunning blunder in the team's 2-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves last week, he also was responsible for the one run that the Phillies scored in that game, as he hit a solo shot in the top of the first inning. Between his groundball percentage and hitting mechanics, Herrera's continued success is puzzling to some. But it's come in a large enough sample size to assure the Phillies that his production is worth the mental lapses that he occasionally has.
Herrera, who continues to see nearly four pitches per at-bat, is slashing .341/.387/.459 with an .846 OPS. He's already been worth more than half of a win in 2018, despite the fact that he hasn't graded out quite as well as a fielder as he traditionally does thus far.
What Herrera's first month has done is silence any thought that he could lose significant time to Aaron Altherr, with him battling for time in right field with Nick Williams (and even Scott Kingery). Herrera may not have had an ideal Spring Training or started on Opening Day, but his slash line speaks for itself – he's been one of the most productive contact hitters in the league through the first month of the season.
Aaron Altherr – Right Field
Dollar Value in 2017: $11.3
Dollar Value in 2018: $-0.6
fWAR in 2017: 1.4
fWAR in 2018: -0.1
Aaron Altherr has had one of the stranger first months to a season that I can remember. He's hitting just .177, but if you made a highlight package of the Phillies biggest moments from a very successful opening month, Altherr would be heavily featured. He's hit a grand-slam, a walk-off single and most recently, a key go-ahead home run against the Diamondbacks in Wednesday's win. He has just 11 hits, but three of those are home runs and he's driven in 17 runs. It's just been weird.
In any event, Altherr appears to be heating up. He has six of his 11 hits in his last four games, with three of those games coming against a Diamondbacks team that has both a strong starting rotation and bullpen. Over that same time period, he hit the aforementioned three-run home run and drove in eight runs.
More than anything, what the first month has shown is that the current Phillies regime thinks that Altherr has a higher upside than Nick Williams. Altherr has received 62 at-bats, nearly all of which have come in right field, while Williams has batted 47 times. Altherr's glove isn't what Odubel Herrera's is in center field, but the Phillies seem to feel it's good enough to keep him in the lineup fairly regularly, despite the fact that he's competing with Williams (and occasionally Kingery) for at-bats in right field.
Nick Williams – Right Field
Dollar Value in 2017: $5.7
Dollar Value in 2018: -1.9
fWAR in 2017: 0.7
fWAR in 2018: -0.2
With a slow start from Carlos Santana, some have suggested that general manager Matt Klentak would have been better off allowing Rhys Hoskins to start at first, while going with an outfield of Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Williams. That, of course, isn't the case, and Williams, who had an impressive 83-game stint in 2017, has lost the most at-bats early on.
In the 47 at-bats that's he's received in 2018 – which is a very small sample size – Williams is slashing an underwhelming .213/.288/.319. He's hit one home run, which came in a pinch-hitting appearance, and has four RBIs.
As I wrote this offseason, this current Phillies regime isn't the one that traded for Williams as part of the return from the Texas Rangers for Cole Hamels in July of 2015. He doesn't grade out well as a fielder, and while his power is intriguing, his .288/.338/.473 slash line in just over half a season last year is probably one he's unlikely to top.
That's not to say he shouldn't get a chance. He's 24, and was very impressive at the plate in his first major league action in 2017. And he'll get at-bats during the 2018 season. He'll almost always be one of the first pinch-hitters off the bench, and the first player inserted into the lineup when the Phillies play in an American League park. What's more, Aaron Altherr has an injury history, while Odubel Herrera has a tendency to go ice-cold when he's not red hot. Williams still figures to get north of 300 at-bats in 2018.
