For Phillies, elite closer is no longer an unnecessary luxury

 

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 

When the Philadelphia Phillies traded 24-year-old closer Ken Giles to the Houston Astros in December of 2015, it puzzled some. Though the Phillies were viewed as a few years away from being ready to contend, at 24, Giles presumably would still be pitching at a high level when the team was ready to compete. Still, the possibility also existed that Giles could blow his arm out or the Phillies timeline could get pushed back even further. So as his first major move as Phillies general manager, Matt Klentak traded Giles to the Astros for a package of pitchers. The trade sent a message that's been widely embraced around baseball: having a potentially elite closer is an unnecessary luxury for a rebuilding team. 

Fast forward nearly two-and-a-half years, and the Phillies are now on the opposite end of this dilemma. 

Sunday, despite a fairly disastrous eighth inning, the Phillies handed the ball to Hector Neris with a one-run lead. Had Neris been able to record the save, the Phillies would have taken two of three from the Washington Nationals, who are still viewed by many as the favorite to win the National League East. They also would have pulled even with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East, which would have marked the first time since the 2011 season that the Phillies were even tied for first place in May. 

Instead, Neris imploded in the ninth. The 28-year-old loaded up the bases, walking two batters and hitting one. Wedged in there somewhere was him throwing the ball away when attempting to pick off Rafael Bautista, the tying run. With the bases loaded and no one out, Neris walked Pedro Severino, allowing the Nationals to tie the game. Wilmer Difo then dropped a ball into the infield, allowing the Nationals to walk off with a series victory. 

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Even prior to the ninth inning, the Phillies bullpen had begun to lose its grip on a very winnable game.

After a solo shot by Maikel Franco gave the Phillies a three-run lead, Luis Garcia was sent back out to start the bottom of the eighth inning. Garcia struck out Michael A. Taylor to start the inning, before walking Moises Sierra. Garcia then gave way to Tommy Hunter, who walked Difo, the first batter he faced. Hunter was able to strike out National League home run leader Bryce Harper, who represented the tying run. He wasn't able to escape the inning unscathed, however. 

The Nationals ultimately pulled to within one run of the Phillies in the eighth inning. Trea Turner hit a swinging bunt that Cesar Hernandez wasn't able to shovel to Carlos Santana at first base in time to end the inning. Anthony Rendon then plated two with a bases-loaded single. Hunter did surprise Matt Adams with a curveball to end the threat in the eighth, though the Nationals had seized all momentum. 

It's only May 6, but with the Nationals off to a slow start, it's fair to wonder if this game won't end up looking pretty significant at the end of the season. What today's game showed is that while an elite closer may have been an unnecessary luxury for a rebuilding Phillies team, the Phillies are no longer a rebuilding team. They are a team that, at least for the time being, is right in the midst of a wide-open National League East race. And with an elite closer, not only would the Phillies have won a one-run game in the ninth, but they may have gotten a four or five out save. 

 

So what now? For now, probably nothing. Neris has blown two saves, but has also recorded six saves after a strong second-half of 2017. Still, even in some of the games that he has manged to close out, there hasn't been much of an automatic feeling. It makes you think that the next time the Phillies make the playoffs, Neris will probably be on the team, but in another role. 

If things go south for Neris, Luis Garcia could potentially be an internal replacement. Victor Arano was almost automatic in less high-leverage situations to open the season, but he's currently on the disabled list with a rotator cuff strain. 23-year-old Seranthony Dominguez, who impressed in five Spring Training appearances, could be another option, though he was only recently promoted to Triple-A. It does feel entirely possible (if not likely) that Dominguez will be the Phillies closer in 2019. Whether the team would promote him directly to closer's role in 2018 is unclear (he's not even the closer at Triple-A right now), as is how willing they are to promote a player that spent the bulk of his 2017 season in the Florida State League. 

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Should the Phillies find themselves in contention this summer, they could look to the trade market to attempt to make an upgrade. Still, it feels unlikely that with Dominguez lurking, they'll surrender a major prospect for an elite closer in a year where they probably will still miss the playoffs. Zach Britton has long been connected to the Phillies, but the Baltimore Orioles closer ruptured his Achilles in December and dealt with a forearm strain last season. Not to mention, the Phillies could just sign the 30-year-old next offseason, when he inevitably becomes a free-agent. 

If the Phillies were to trade for a closer this summer, it feels more likely they would be interested in shorter-term veteran options like Joakim Soria, Brad Ziegler or Fernando Rodney. Given the start that each of those three has had to the season, it's fair to wonder if they would serve as any sort of upgrade. It feels less than likely that the Phillies would meet the asking price for a closer like Brad Hand or even Kelvin Herrera this summer. 

In some ways, this is a nice problem to have. For as bad as the Phillies bullpen was Sunday, it's largely been an effective unit in 2018. It's been an effective unit without Mark Leiter Jr. or Pat Neshek. But it's an effective unit that appears to lack a shutdown closer. We've moved from talking about who the Phillies should move at the trade deadline, to what pieces they could add to help the team potentially reach the postseason for the first time since 2011. The Phillies aren't that far away. But their lack of an elite closer, which is no longer an unnecessary luxury, may be one of a few signs that they are at least a year away. 

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