By Matt Rappa, Sports Talk Philly editor 
"Hold on, Alaa … we're coming in for a landing."
Just three series and 11 games remain in the 2018 Philadelphia Phillies season. Seven of those 11 games will be against the Atlanta Braves, who hold a 5 1/2-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East. The other four games will be against the Colorado Rockies, who have a 3 1/2-game lead over the Phillies for third place in the National League Wild Card standings behind the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Phillies entered their first season under Gabe Kapler with high expectations, but never could we imagine the club still being postseason contenders, 151 games into the season in the latter-half of September. And yet, here we are.
To qualify for their first "Red October" since 2011, the Phillies must win nearly all of their remaining 11 games. While just one club — the Braves — stand ahead of them in the division standings, the easier path to a postseason clinch actually lies in the Wild Card race, albeit needing to jump ahead of the Rockies and Cardinals.
The Phillies' elimination number in both the division and Wild Card sits at six games. Hence, the Braves and Cardinals cannot win more than three games, while the Phillies cannot lose more than three. Each Phillies loss lowers that number — closer to a clinch — in favor of the Braves or Cardinals. And for the Braves, each Phillies loss against them would lower their magic number by two.
So, what is more realistic, the Braves finishing 3-7, or the Cardinals finishing 3-6? Say the Phillies win five of their seven games against the Braves. Those two losses would lower their elimination number, or the Braves magic number, to two games. The Braves still have a three-game series in between against the lowly New York Mets at Citi Field. All the Braves would need is a series win to clinch the division, as two Braves wins would lower their magic number to zero, regardless of the Phillies' play against the Rockies.
Consider the Wild Card. The Rockies do not pose as a concern for the Phillies. The Rockies have three games eachagainst the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals, outside of their four-game home set against the Phillies. A Phillies sweep alone would propel them ahead of the Rockies by a 1/2 game.
The second Wild Card-leading Cardinals have not excelled against their remaining opponents this season, going 2-2 against the San Francisco Giants, 8-8 against the Brewers and 9-7 against the Cubs. The Giants, Brewers and National League Central-leading Cubs have a combined .541 winning percentage this season and pose as a considerable threat to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have similarly played .500 baseball over their last 10 games, 5-5. Although they have the most wins in the majors since the All-Star break, 36, the Cardinals are just 20-21 overall this season in one-run, high-leverage games.
Clearly, mathematics, luck, and pure team success all need to work together in the Phillies' favor for them to clinch a postseason spot. In the event of a tie, a 163rd game would likely be played on Oct. 1.
While a division title is not out of the question, there is more room for error and a higher likelihood for success in the Wild Card race.
