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Pickin’ on the NFL: Week 10 Vegas Odds/Lines
Published12 Nov 2015
Nothing clever to note this week, I’m afraid. This is the problem of having a full time job outside this grand hobby. Thoughts on Week 10’s games & some picks below:
Buffalo (+1.5) at New York Jets: What’s interesting is that some outlets are giving the Bills a field goal in this game. Either way, this could be an outright win for the Bills who are just a different ball-club with Tyrod Taylor running the offense.
Miami (+7) at Philadelphia: This seems like an unusually high line for an Eagles team that is 4-4 on the season. Maybe they’re finding their stride. Maybe Vegas thinks the Dolphins short-term, post-Philbin magic has worn off. Either way, I think Eagles win…but not by that much.
Detroit at Green Bay (-a billion): Ok, so maybe the line isn’t that big. The Packers are going to come out at home wanting to hurt someone after back-to-back road losses in Denver & Charlotte. Swallow the 12 points & ride the big line Packers win.
Dallas at Tampa Bay (-1): The Cowboys are reeling and in no position to go on the road to play anyone. Tampa wins this home game in, what would have been, a preseason shocker.
Carolina at Tennessee (+5): The Panthers are going to lose sometime. The Titans defense is better than their record would lead people to believe. This game may be a lot closer than they think too.
Chicago at St. Louis (-7.5): Big Bears win in San Diego on Monday night. Alshon Jeffrey looks like a beast. I think this line may move in Chicago’s direction prior to kickoff but the Rams are a different team at home (3-1) than on the road (1-3). Rams win.
New Orleans at Washington (Pick ‘em): Skins are 3-1 at home. Saints are 1-3 outside the Superdome. I think the Saints are a better team who had a bad day in Nashville last Sunday. To be fair, having spent time in Nashville on Saturday nights, it’s easy to have a bad Sunday there. Saints.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-5): Steelers, regardless of who is at QB. They’re coming off a narrow home win to the suddenly solid Oakland Raiders that should energize the team. If Big Ben plays, great. If not, I still like what Landry Jones has shown.
Jacksonville at Baltimore (-6): One of these teams was meant to be good this year. It wasn’t the Jags…they are who we thought they were. The Ravens should win but I want nothing to do with the line. When you can’t trust one team, trust neither.
Minnesota at Oakland (-2.5): The Raiders continue to play shockingly good football. The Vikings? They’re just tied for the NFC North lead. Unbelievable. I like the way the Raiders are playing couple with the fact that Teddy Bridgewater was almost beheaded last week against the Rams. Oakland.
New England (-8.5) in New York Giants: Like the Lions-Packers blurb above. There is no team the Pats want to beat more—except, maybe, the Colts again—than the team that has handed them two Super Bowl losses. Pats…BIG.
Kansas City (+7) at Denver: Everyone keeps expecting the Broncos offense, and mostly Peyton Manning, to just snap out of it. Keep waiting. Kansas City’s defense should keep this closer than a touchdown…though they’ll still lose.
Arizona (+3) at Seattle: Arizona isn’t just a good team, they’re a good road team. Seattle has OL problems that have haunted them all season. Cardinals may win outright but take the points to be sure.
Houston at Cincinnati (-10.5): Listen, the Bengals are winning this home game on Monday Night Football. But by a dozen points? That’s a big game for any NFL line. Still, Cincinnati is the only team that is undefeated against the spread this year (7-0-1). Sounds like a trend to me…
Last week I was 2-1-1. Denver made a lot of bettors very unhappy. Rams-Vikings was a push. Good job by Cincinnati & Oakland to beat their respective spreads…even though the Raiders didn’t beat the actual team.
Official Week 10 Picks Against the Spread:
Buffalo (+1.5) at New York Jets
New England (-8.5) at New York Giants
Detroit at Green Bay (-12)
Arizona (+3) at Seattle
Overall record: 13-8-3
