NBA Draft Profile: Is Ace Bailey the Right Pick for 76ers at No. 3?

The Philadelphia 76ers hold the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft. With the draft about a month away, there is plenty of time to dissect the multiple potential options the Sixers have at the No. 3 pick. Let’s begin by diving into Ace Bailey, one of the most polarizing prospects in this year’s draft class.

Combine measurements: 6-foot-7 1/2 (without shoes), 203 pounds

2024-25 stats: 30 games, 33.4 minutes, 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.0 steals, 46.0% from the field, 34.6% from 3-point range, 69.2% from the free-throw line

Strengths:

There are many things to like about Bailey’s skillset, led by his ability to put the ball in the hoop. Bailey, in his lone season at Rutgers, showcased an ability to be an effective shot creator. He was a knockdown outside shooter, connecting on 41.2% of his 3-pointers through his first 19 games at Rutgers. While his season-long percentage dipped down to just 34.6, there should be no worries about Bailey’s outside shooting abilities long-term.

Bailey has the frame (6-foot-7 1/2 barefoot with a 7-foot wingspan and an 8-foot-11 standing reach) and touch to get off shots regardless of the level of defense. Opposing defenses were typically able to make Bailey the center of their attention given the lack, outside of Dylan Harper, of other offensive threats on Rutgers’ roster. Despite the extra attention, Bailey still found ways to produce offensively. He knocked down 38.7% of his attempts in catch-and-shoot situations. Outside of those looks, he often relied on using his length and the threat to drive to create enough space on the perimeter to get a solid shot up.

Bailey also flashed some potential to be a good defender at the next level. He has the size and athleticism to defend multiple positions. His best attributes defensively are his athleticism and length, both of which make him a nightmare for opposing perimeter players. Bailey held opposing scorers to just 30.8% on jump shots he defended. The video package below includes numerous examples of Bailey using his quick closing speed and long reach to either disrupt or block a shot on the perimeter.

Defensive plays like these make it hard to overlook Ace Bailey’s upside as a wing prospect.

Opposing scorers shot 30.8% (!) on jump shots + 40.9% at the rim when guarded by Bailey. pic.twitter.com/tq84X9MhmG

— Mohamed (@mcfdraft) May 16, 2025

At his best, Bailey has shades of former Sixer Matisse Thybulle’s range and ability to impact shots defensively. While he has the tools to be a strong perimeter defender, Bailey also uses his length to make an impact defending the basket. He has the defensive range and versatility to be a strong weak side rim protector. Bailey might not shine as a one-on-one defender. However, he will blow people away with his ability to be an excellent off-ball defender. If he can stay engaged and bought in, there is real potential for Bailey to be a strong NBA defender.

Weaknesses:

Bailey has the tools to be productive against NBA competition, but he is a polarizing prospect for a reason. Beyond his outside shooting ability, Bailey does not possess a well-rounded offensive skillset. One of the biggest knocks on Bailey is his lack of a good handle dribbling the basketball. While Bailey is an athletic player, one of his weaknesses on that front is his struggles quickly changing direction. Between his agility issues and average ball handling, Bailey will likely struggle beating defenders one-on-one. While Bailey is far from a bad scorer around the basket, he has a lot of work to do to refine his scoring ability around the basket.

In addition to his overall offensive skillset being a work in progress, Bailey’s decision making and shot selection leave a lot to be desired. He got away with taking and making a healthy amount of heavily contested jumpers at Rutgers. However, relying on making those types of shots is not a recipe for long-term success. The hope is that Bailey, as he matures and gains NBA experience, will grow and improve his shot selection. However, his abysmal quote given at the combine did very little to quell any concerns about his poor decision making.

One of the other things causing some concern about Bailey is his combine measurements. After being listed at 6-foot-10 this season, he measured in at the combine at 6-foot-7 1/2 without shoes. Even accounting for a small boost to his height when wearing shoes, Bailey is smaller than what he was originally listed at. He also needs to bulk up from his 203-pound frame in order to compete against more physical NBA competition.

Final Take:

The Sixers in theory would be a good fit for Bailey. In a world where Joel Embiid and Paul George can stay relatively healthy, Bailey will not be expected to immediately shoulder a heavy burden offensively. He would primarily be an off-ball scorer feasting on open 3-pointers. Over the course of his first season or two in the league, Bailey would ideally be able to make the necessary improvements to become more than a 3-and-D type of player.

However, there is an alternate world where Bailey fails to progress past being an inefficient scorer at the NBA level. He continues to struggle with his decision making and never takes the steps necessary to maximize his overall skillset. On the defensive end, Bailey refuses to fully engage and put the work in to become one of the league’s most versatile defenders.

The chasm between those two scenarios is at the core of what makes Bailey an immensely polarizing prospect. On one end of the spectrum is the player comparison of a fully healthy Michael Porter Jr. or Rashard Lewis. Bailey has shades of being a top-end shotmaker at the NBA level while also being a more than capable defender. However, just as likely is the scenario where Bailey caps out as an inefficient scorer who never plays a part in winning basketball. In that outcome, the player comparison would fall towards Michael Beasley.

Any team taking him should realize they are getting a project player. Bailey will need a lot of refining and time in order to achieve his fullest potential. There are safer picks at No. 3, but not many who have as high a ceiling as Bailey does.