A common market sports bettors often come across in the NFL is alt passing yards. This market essentially gives you more options on the Over/Under for how many yards a quarterback will throw.
People often use this kind of wagering to make sports betting more interesting and to come up with different strategies for placing bets.
Our experts will explain everything you need to know about alt passing yards in order to make informed decisions when betting on such markets.
Alt Passing Yards In Betting Explained
The alternate passing yards market allows you to bet on whether the passing yards in a game will be more or less than the standard betting line set by sportsbooks. The odds for these alternate lines change depending on whether you adjust them in your favor or against.
Here’s how it works. US sportsbooks will conduct an analysis of each game individually and set over/under spreads on various passing yard ranges. Punters then need to decide if the particular quarterback will throw more or less than the standard lines set in order to receive better odds (and a higher payout).
For a more conservative approach with alt passing yards lines, you can bet on more passing yards than the standard line if it’s set lower or on fewer passing yards than the standard line if it’s set higher.
What Is The Difference Between Alt Passing Yards Betting and Passing Yards Betting?
Regular passing yards is a stat that shows how many yards a quarterback or passer threw for in a game. On the other hand, alternate passing yards adjust this total to reflect additional factors like sacks, incomplete passes, and yards lost due to penalties.
Alternate passing yards provide a more accurate measure of a passer’s actual performance by accounting for these influencing factors.
An example of an alt passing yards bet might involve predicting if a particular quarterback will surpass a specific passing yards line, factoring in sacks, incomplete passes, and yards lost due to penalties.
This type of bet offers a way to assess a quarterback’s actual performance throughout a game, considering more than just their basic passing yards.
What Is An Over/Under Bet?
In an Over/Under bet, a sportsbook predicts a specific number for a particular aspect of a game, such as passing yards or total points. Bettors will then bet on whether the actual number will be higher or lower than the bookie’s prediction.
This type of bet doesn’t involve predicting the exact score of a match. Instead, you’re betting on whether you think there will be more points scored than the sportsbook predicts or fewer.
If the score happens to match the quoted value, which is uncommon, the bet is called a push, and all Over/Under bets are refunded.
While Over/Under bets are usually based on the combined score of the two teams, they can also be tailored to other statistics, such as total rushing yards or attempts, interceptions, and completions.
They are also common in other sports, such as basketball, for player assists, blocks, and turnovers, and baseball, for home runs, total number of hits, strikeouts in a game, etc.
Over/Under bets can also be known by various names. In the US, you might come across this type of bet called a ‘Total,’ or abbreviated as O-U. However, all these names refer to the same type of bet.
Patrick Mahomes Alt Passing Yards
Let’s say the usual line for Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards is set at Over/Under 288.5. You might find alternative passing yard lines like 200, 230, 260, 300, and 340 yards.
If you believe Mahomes will have a standout performance, you could choose to bet Over 300 yards instead of 288.5. In return, you’d receive more favorable odds (a higher payout) compared to taking Over the standard line of 288.5.
Conversely, if you think Mahomes will have an off day or the Chiefs will focus more on running, you might opt to bet Under 260 yards. This decision would offer better odds and a higher payout.
Why Bet On Alt Passing Yards in the NFL
Ultimately, alt passing yards markets give you a different way to bet on an NFL game – rather than simply picking a team to win.
Seeing as these bets center around the quarterbacks and, in particular, how many yards they throw, they don’t just rely on a team winning the game.
Many punters use this type of betting to add excitement to sports wagering and to create diverse strategies for making bets.
How To Win More When Betting On Alt Passing Yards
When taking an Overs line, the higher the number of passing yards, the higher the odds. Meanwhile, lower yardage results in shorter odds. With the lower lines resulting in shorter odds, a useful option is to use them in parlays in order to boost the odds.
To win your parlay bet, you need to hit every leg. “Buying” extra yards gives you some flexibility in case the player gets close to their expected performance.
For instance, you might choose Mahomes Over 260 yards (instead of the original 288.5 yards), along with another player’s alternate line, to increase the likelihood of winning.
Additionally, you could also choose a different passing yards prediction if you believe the standard one is either too high or too low, and you want a chance at a bigger payout.
For instance, if the Eagles’ running backs are injured but Jalen Hurts’ usual passing yards line is around his season average, you might bet on an alternate passing yards line that’s higher than his standard one.
Bet Against (Under) In The Alt Passing Yards Market
If there’s an instance where you think a certain quarterback will have a bad day in terms of passing yardage then taking the Unders lines in the alt passing yards market would be the way to go.
In order to enhance the odds of your selections here, use the lower alt passing yards lines, as these would generally pay out more.
Alt Passing Yards Tips, Hints and Strategies
When delving into alternate passing yards bets, it’s important to thoroughly analyze the defense’s dynamics, understanding both their strengths and weaknesses. It’s also key to consider the broader context of how the game might unfold in relation to your alternate passing yards bet.
However, it’s not solely about the passing defense statistics. Take note of the defense’s proficiency in generating sacks during a game. Even if a defense allows significant passing yards, if they consistently achieve high sack numbers, it should factor into your considerations, as this will likely impact the final passing yards total.
Moreover, don’t limit your focus to the passing aspect alone. If a defense struggles to impede the running game, it signals that the offense may rely more on ground plays. This not only leads to a reduction in passing plays but also contributes to a continuous running clock, resulting in fewer overall plays in the game.
Be sure to also factor in external elements, particularly weather conditions. Adverse conditions such as high winds, snow, or rain can prompt a team to adopt a more conservative approach to their passing game. This may influence the team’s overall passing strategy and, consequently, impact the outcome of your alt passing yards bet.
Understanding these variables allows for a more informed and strategic approach when navigating alternate passing yards wagers.
