Chase Utley, The Part-Time Player

The Phillies are in an odd situation with moveable pieces and the need to re-tool, but leadership that refuses to commit to a rebuild and dedicated to holding on to their assets.  While there are players that are likely to move (i.e. Young, Young, Ruiz, etc.), those players are unlikely to bring back anything of impact value.  The Phillies have two players in Chase Utley and Cliff Lee that could bring back high-level, top prospects, but they refuse to make those players available.  While you can argue Cliff Lee’s availability, it is clear that the Phillies have no intention to trade Utley and, instead, wish to retain him long-term, thereby perpetuating the fact that we are going to continue to push forward with the same core for the next few years.

There are many arguments that could be made as to why Utley should be traded, including the potential return of prospects (assuming you have faith that Amaro will acquire an adequate return), change for the sake of change, Utley injury history, and his declining ability with his increasing age.  For the sake of argument, I am going to focus on the latter two, ignoring the opportunity cost of the return you could get from trading Chase.  Instead, I hope to focus on showing that his injury history and age should not impact our decision for Chase’s future by examining the value of Chase Utley, the part-time player.

It was not long ago that Chase Utley was a legitimate Superstar in MLB.  In 2009, he may have had the best year of his career, posting 8.0 WAR (according to fangraphs.com), hit 31 HRs, stole 23 bases, while having a career high 12.8% walk rate.  Since that season, he has not played in more than 115 games, with a season WAR peak of 5.1 and steady decline since.  The last few seasons, he has had a salary of $15M a year, while playing roughly 50-60% of the season.  For a team that is looking to get younger and healthier, Utley seems like a peak target for change.  However, Utley should not be the focal point of organizational change, when his value still far exceeds the other aging veterans on the team.

Looking at his numbers over the past five years on a season by season basis, Utley has or will exceed his contract value in all years, excluding his 2012 season.  In that season, having played only half the season, he was still worth 3+ Wins above Replacement, ranked in the top 10 among all 2B (most of whom did play a full season), and only fell short of his contract by $900K, despite missing almost 80 games.  In 2013, he is on pace for a 4.6 WAR (assuming he plays 80% of the remaining games), which would make him worth roughly $23M on the season and provide a surplus value of $8M.  Based on that, even with all of the injuries, Utley will be worth roughly 25 WAR over the past 5 years, which would equate to about a $22M a year player, and will provide the Phillies with a value of roughly $46M over the last five years, roughly $16M of which would be over the last four years.

Even with playing so few games over the last few seasons, Utley has still ranked among the top 2B in all of baseball.  His peak season of 2009 had him as the 2^nd best player at his position, behind only Ben Zobrist, whose value is enhanced by positional flexibility as well as time spent at Shortstop.  Since then, in his decline years, he has ranked as the 4^th, 7^th, 8^th, and 6^th best 2B in baseball.  In each of those years, the players ahead of him had played full seasons, while Utley had played significantly fewer games over those years.

The optimist in me would like to consider the fact that Utley can be healthy and play a full season again.  The realist in me knows that it will never happen again and, when considering this, needs to evaluate him, his future contract, and his role within the organization on the basis that he will only play 80-110 games in a season.  That being said, just for fun, below is the data above annualized to show what could have been with Chase Utley, had he been able to play full seasons at that seasons level.  The result would have been a $25M a year player who would easily have been a top 3 player at his position for roughly $14M a year, providing the Phillies with a surplus value of $77M over the last five seasons.

The last thing I wanted to look at was the value of the players who have exceeded his WAR over the past five years, specifically looking at their total value, peak value, and contract status as compared to Utley and the rumored negotiations.  Even accounting for the injuries, over the past five years, Utley has been the 4^th most valuable 2B, while playing a fraction of the games of all 2B in the league.  The difference between him and Pedroia, who is ranked 3^rd, is .1 WAR.  He has also registered the 2^nd highest single season WAR over that time, but that came as his last full season in 2009.

This led me to strip out that season entirely, and look at those same players over the last four years, the years that Utley has been injured.  The order changes slightly, but Utley’s status does not.  He still remained the 4^th best 2B according to WAR.  His annualized numbers would have made him the best 2B over that time, as Cano has had a 23.4 cumulative WAR, and Chase’s annualized numbers would put him at 23.44.  That is more of a statement of what could have been, as opposed to what has happened and the basis for evaluation.

Because of his injury history the last four years, he has the second lowest peak WAR value among those considered, yet still is tied for 4^th on a cumulative basis.  This emphasizes his consistency as an above average player, despite his injuries.  When he does play, the injuries have little impact on his ability to contribute to the organization.

As the Phillies discuss a contract extension with him, the figures they are throwing seem absurd.  The current rumor is a three year contract extension at $13M per year.  That might seem frightening for a player who has had a checkered history recently, but consider the fact that his lowest value season in 2012, he was still worth 3.1 WAR and $14.1M, despite only playing 83 games.  His four-year average WAR would value him at roughly a $17M a year player.  Assuming only a 25% decline across his 35-37 year old seasons is risky, but his numbers this year, including his defensive performance, actually reflect a potential upswing in performance relative to his 2011-2012 seasons.

Looking at the contracts of comparable players, I think it is very reasonable based on how the market dictates paying players at his position and status.  It is reasonable to think that Cano will become the highest paid 2B in the league this off-season, with good reason.  The rumored contract, therefore, would make Utley 4-5 highest paid 2B in the league, comparable with his performance to date.  I would rather pay Utley that contract than the contracts given to Hill or Weeks that are only slightly below the rumored Utley contract, with significantly less return from the players.

It may seem absurd to pay an injury-plagued 2B at $13M a season, but even if he only plays 100 games a year, he should provide value in those games in excess of the contract cost.  There is of course risk involved, but the Phillies may be willing to take on that risk as a result of the intangibles Utley brings as well as the marketing value he offers during that time period.  Ultimately though, Utley for 100 games, plus a replacement player for the remaining 62 games, still would provide more value and performance than 80% of the 2B in the league.  One thing that I cannot dispute, is that Utley has become the most successful and highest paid part-time player in the majors.