History says Murray is doomed to disappoint, but has Chip put himself in a position to re-write history?

"We're trying to get him acclimated. He also carried the ball more than anybody in the National Football League last year, so we are trying to integrate him into what we are doing," Kelly told reporters during a press conference last Friday.

 

But while history insists that backs in Murray's predicament  have struggled the following season, did they have a backup with whom the carries would be split? Did they have a Ryan Mathews to take the load off their shoulders?

 

According to history, no they did not. 

 

In 2007, Johnson and the Kansas City Chiefs followed their 2006 campaign with a disappointing 4-12 record. While losing Johnson in week nine didn't help, head coach Herman Edwards elected to run the running back into the ground following a record setting season in regards to carries. Before suffering the injury, Johnson carried the ball 158 times and averaged 19.8 carries per game. His backup—a combination of Michael Bennett and Priest Holmes—on the other hand, rushed the ball only 33 times and averaged about four carries per game. 

 

For George, Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher fed the running back the ball 315 times. His main backup—Skip Hicks-–rushed the ball only 56 times. Over the course of the 2001 season, George averaged 19.7 carries a game while his backups averaged just 4.9. 

 

As history shows, neither Johnson or George were in a situation following their carry-heavy seasons where they could share the load with another capable running back. They were expected to be the workhorses, and pound the ball as much as they had the season prior. 

 

Kelly isn't taking  the same approach that Fisher or Edwards took. He's aware of Murray's 392 carries last season. He's likely aware that history is against him, and that's why he brought in Murray AND Mathews. He doesn't expect Murray to be a workhorse again this season. He acknowledges history, and has equipped himself to re-write it. 

 

"When you have a physical, downhill runner, you better have two of them," Kelly said after the team initially signed the two backs. 'They're going to carry the ball, but they're also going to take some shots. We want to be able to spread out the carries. I don't think we have to give that running back that many carries. Part of what we have to do running the ball is distribute those carries."

Which is why Mathews is here. While LeSean McCoy was in Philadelphia, he was the lone featured back with former Eagle Chris Polk and Darren Sproles being mixed in here and there. Kelly doesn't want to put all the strain on a single running back this season, and with Mathews, he won't have to.

Obviously, injuries are another concern. Both Murray and Mathews have checkered injury pasts, especially Mathews, who has played a full 16-game season only once in his career. 

Via NFL.com: "Since 1990, 22 running backs have carried the ball 400 times in a season (playoffs included). Only four of the previous 21 played a full 16 games in their next season. Only eight of the previous 21 managed 1,000 rushing yards in their next season."

Injuries are another valid concern with either running back. Once again though, neither should take the punishment that even McCoy took as the lone, featured back. As Kelly said, "when you have a physical. downhill runner, you better have two of them." That's the exact situation the Eagles find themselves in. Also, the Eagles' use of sports science, which Kelly has emphasized since arriving to the NFL, is used to help keep his players in tip-top shape. Those methods could go a long way towards keeping the running backs healthy. 

Don't forget about Sproles, who shares the same downhill style of running that Kelly desires, even at 5'6, 190 pounds. The Eagles have a three-headed monster in the backfield, although the two primary guys will be Murray and Mathews, with Sproles playing more of a role in the passing game. They may be allocating a lot of money to the running back position, but they're paying two guys instead of one. 

"We already had money [allotted at running back] – it's the same situation," Kelly said after signing both Murray and Mathews. "We just got two players."

Will it work out perfectly? History suggests no. But at the very least, it gives the Eagles a nice safety net if Murray or Mathews do go down, and the likelihood that either goes down is largely diminished with the shared workload between the two. 

According to Kelly, the plan was always to have two running backs to share carries.

"Obviously we thought the three best guys were Frank [Gore] and DeMarco and Ryan. And we wanted to target two of them. And we ended up with two of them,"Kelly told Birds 24/7 back in March. "Did we have a master plan that it was always gonna work out like this? No, but we went into it with an idea that if we lose LeSean, we better get two guys."

The Eagles missed out on Frank Gore, who jumped ship last minute to sign with the Indianapolis Colts. Many people believe that the signing of Murray was a "panic move," but according to Kelly, Murray was always in their plans. Gore was targeted first because of his cheap price tag, especially at age 32. Gore fell through, which  left Murray and Mathews. 

So, as history says, the Eagles likely made a mistake when they handed Murray $42 million to play running back for their team. However, Kelly has put himself in a favorable position by signing not just one, but two running backs with similar running styles for the purpose of using them interchangeably and keeping them fresh. Murray won't be expected to carry the same weight on his shoulders as Johnson or George did with the Chiefs and Titans thanks to Mathews.

"Part of also having Ryan here, I would hope that DeMarco does not have to carry the ball 392 times this year," Kelly said in March. "If he does, then we’re running it 692 times." 

Kelly might not be a "genius," but he has sure put himself in the best position at running back to look like one when the season ends, and re-write history.