One of the best developments of this season for the Philadelphia Flyers is the development of Sean Couturier. At last, it seems the player is taking a step offensively, showing more offensive initiative. As a result, he's been promoted to second line center.
This is generally great news. It has, however, created a vacuum behind him.
The Flyers third and fourth lines are really struggling, and often appear overmatched. As the Flyers fight for a playoff spot, they find their Bottom-6 forwards generally hold them back.
As Bill Meltzer wrote in his Friday Flyers odds and ends, the Flyers bottom-six is more like lines 4a and 4b. He's probably right, but that doesn't change the reality that most nights some line is going to be a de facto third line.
On most nights, the Flyers' de facto third line is Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Chris VandeVelde, and Ryan White. This is clear from the line matchups and ice-time. The numbers for that trio are quite discouraging.
The Flyers are currently in a seven-team scrum for the two wild card spots. Here are some basic stats for the third line each of those teams are currently utilizing.
Outside of Pittsburgh's current third line, the Flyers group looks the worst. In fact, of 335 forwards in the NHL who have played 300 5v5 minutes, Bellemare's points rate of 0.44 per 60 minutes is 323. To be fair, Kempainen, Josefson, and Fehr are keeping him company down there.
It's a significant impediment to the Flyers chances to have a third line that not only spends most of their time in their own zone, but produces basically no offense whatsoever. It's possible that Bellemare, VandeVelde, and White could increase their production, but by most accounts these are fourth line NHL talents. Dave Hakstol has shown a lot of faith in these players, but their anemic production is hardly shocking.
The Flyers' group lacks also lacks upside. The Ottawa Senators third line is even worse on paper right now, but features a player like Curtis Lazar, who is a 20-year old first round pick that can be expected to improve in time. I'm sure Hakstol would love to have a group like Carolina — three players 23 or younger who were all first or second round picks. Other teams sprinkle in young talents Hayes, Pastrnak or Eller.
But here we are. The Flyers weakness in this area was on full display Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins. With Couturier out injured, Hakstol assigned Claude Giroux to the Sidney Crosby line, and attempted to use his 4a and 4b lines against the Evgeni Malkin line. The lines were overwhelmed, with the Bellemare line in particular earning an approximate Corsi of 10 percent against Malkin.
Hopefully Couturier will not miss a significant period of time. In or out of the lineup, having a third line that is usually buried in their own end changes the momentum of games. That doesn't even speak of a third line that chips in occasional goals, which is the ideal.
Hakstol has brought some stability to the top lines recently. This has left the Flyers bottom-6 short on talent. This is a risky long term solution, and will be a constant thorn in their side. Presuming Hakstol is not inclined to break up that top-6, he must consider lineup tweaks to the bottom-6. Candidates for limited roles on the wings could be the recently promoted Sam Gagner, or promoting Nick Cousins or Taylor Leier.
Gagner has known NHL pedigree. He doesn't have much size, and is not known for his defensive prowess, but he can bring a different element to a punchless third line. Cousins is having a very nice season in the AHL, with 33 points in 34 games. Leier is developing in the AHL as well, and went pointless during a six-game callup on fourth line duty earlier this season.
Personally, to see Hakstol try some new blood and/or young legs would be much more ideal that keeping the status quo. It carries some obvious risks, but the current path could simply be choosing a slow death. It's going to be a battle for a playoff spot, and every weapon in the arsenal should be considered.
Marc Naples is a contributor to Flyerdelphia and Sports Talk Philly. Follow him on Twitter@SuperScrub47.
