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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
Well, the Phillies are still bad, even after the joy of this weekend's Rollins' record wore off. The Phillies are 29-38, good enough for last in the NL East, but just 6.5 games back. You could make a solid argument for as many as 22 or 23 of the 25 players on the roster to not be back next year, but we know turnover takes a little longer than that. If the Phillies did absolutely nothing, and let all the contracts run out, here's what you'd be looking at for the next couple of years:
FIRST BASE- Ryan Howard is in year three of a five year extension, with an option on the back end that has a $10 million buy out. So, if left alone, Ryan Howard would definitely man First Base in 2015 and 2016, with 2017 as a possibility. The only MLB capable replacements discussed are Ruf and Franco here, either of which would be ready whenever.
SECOND BASE- Chase Utley is in year one of a two year extension that has three vesting options on the back end of it. So, if left alone, Utley would be second baseman in 2015 for sure, and could be around for 2016, 2017, and 2018 if his options vest. Pullin in Lakewood is the only true second baseman in the minors that people are watching, while Hernandez, Galvis, and even Asche could be considered here sooner.
SHORTSTOP- This is Jimmy Rollins' "contract year," however he has a very attainable vesting option that he is likely to hit, kicking in his deal for 2015. The top prospect here is obviously J.P. Crawford, who was just promoted to Clearwater yesterday, and could conceivably start next season in Reading if he continues to progress. Closer to the bigs, you could try to keep the seat warm for Crawford with Galvis or Hernandez.
THIRD BASE- No one is under a long-term contract here. Cody Asche is in pre-arbitration year one, and has two more before he'd even reach an arbitration year. Maikel Franco's play in AAA this year doesn't suggest a fast promotion this season is in order, so his arbitration clock won't even start yet.
CATCHER- Carlos Ruiz is in year one of his three year deal, making $8 million a year. This means Carlos, if left alone, would be here for 2015 and 2016 as well. Tommy Joseph got off to a fast start, but has been hurt a lot since, and Cameron Rupp's fast start has completely faded, so right now there may not be a rush to clear the job open.
OUTFIELD- Marlon Byrd is in year one of a two year deal, worth $8 million a year too. Ben Revere is into arbitration eligibility for 2015 and therefore is on a year-to-year basis now. Dom Brown will also enter arbitration, and be on a year-to-year deal too. So only Byrd is guarantee to be in the 2015 outfield, however Revere and Brown could be in for 2015, 2016, and 2017. Ruf is the only advanced option right now in the outfield, however Roman Quinn was moved to center field yesterday, and could be a future option in the outfield. Kelly Dugan is in AA, and was doing alright, but had injury issues. Aaron Altherr has only been fair in AA as well.
ROTATION- Cliff Lee is in year four of a five year deal, with an option that has a $15 million buyout. This means, he'd be in Philadelphia through 2015 if left alone, and perhaps 2016. Cole Hamels is in year two of a six year deal, with at least an option, meaning he'd be in Philadelphia if left alone for 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, and perhaps, 2019. A.J. Burnett is here on one guaranteed year, but he can be kept around for 2015 for sure under his contract's terms. Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are both scheduled to see free agency after this season. Buchanan and Pettibone would probably qualify as pre-arb 2's next year yet, and still make nothing. Biddle is in AA, but struggling again now. Nola will pitch in Clearwater this Summer apparently, meaning he could potentially make a 2016 debut. Miguel Gonzalez has dead arm right now, and Severino Gonzalez has come back to Earth this year.
BULLPEN- Papelbon is in year three of a four year deal, with an attainable-ish option for him, meaning he's here for 2015, and maybe 2016. Adams can walk after this season, if he wishes to. Bastardo is in arbitration two, meaning the Phillies control him in 2015 too. Jake Diekman is considered to be in pre-arb 2, so the Phillies control him for the next four seasons. Also under club control for the foreseeable future are De Fratus, Giles, Martin, Rosenberg, and Aumont, though some of them are more desired than others. Manship was a minor league free agent, and is not under future control.
BENCH- Mayberry is in his second arbitration season, so the Phillies could control him in 2015. Gwynn was a minor league free agent, and is not under control. Brignac was also signed on a minor league deal and could be a free agent. Hernandez is still in his early pre-arb years, and Galvis might remain pre-arb at the current rate as well. Nieves is also not under control for 2015. Ruf would remain pre-arb next season as well.
This is just a first-step primer in looking at the Phillies options going beyond 2014. Next, we'll look at valuing their pieces.
