Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
Preview: the NBA Finals matches up the best player in the world versus the best team in the world. The Cleveland Caveliers are decimated by injuries, losing Kevin Love for the playoffs and having Kyrie Irving limited by knee and toe injuries. This has placed the onus on LeBron James to carry this Cavs team to the finals. This has affected his efficiency ratings, as he has shot only 42% from the field in these playoffs, much lower than his 50.61% average while playing with the Heat. But he is arguably playing the best basketball of his career. Against the Atlanta Hawks, King James averaged 30.3 points, 11 rebounds and 9.3 assists, incredible numbers by any standard of measurement. While the Cavs have benefited from playing in the weaker Eastern Conference, let's not sell them totally short, however. They still have some very talented players on their team. J.R. Smith was the Sixth Man of the Year in 2013, averaging 18.1 points per game off the bench for the New York Knicks. Tristan Thompson is an offensive rebounding machine, Iman Shumpert is a plus defender that can get hot from deep, and Timofey Mozgov provides a big body down low to help grab boards and affect shots. Again, no one will mistake this team for the 96 Bulls, but this isn't LeBron James and a bunch of scrubs either.
Meanwhile, the Warriors, led by league MVP Steph Curry and sharpshooter Klay Thompson, have waltzed through the hyper-competitive Western conference with ease, dropping only three games in three series against the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The Warriors were the top offensive team in the NBA by almost any statistical measure: they led the NBA in points per game, field goal percentage, three point percentage, three pointers made, and fast break points. They are also one of the top defensive teams, holding teams to a league low 42% shooting from the field. They are as talented as they are deep, and have enough flexibility to beat a team in any number of ways. Simply put, they have been the best team in the league all season, and nothing they have done in the playoffs suggests that will change.
Key Matchup to Watch: Cleveland is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. Both Thompson and Mozgov are a terror on the offensive boards, which puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses. However, the Warriors love to get out and run in transition. They led the NBA in points scored in transition, and are a constant threat to turn a missed shot into a fast break in the blink of an eye. The main facilitator of this is Mr. Do Everything Draymond Green. He is a point forward that can grab the board and lead the break with his exceptional ball handling and elite passing ability. One of the keys will be to see which team blinks first. Do the Cavs not crash the boards as hard to try to contain the Warriors on the break? Or do the Warriors keep extra bodies down low to try and mitigate the Cavs effectiveness on the boards? That could go a long way towards determining the outcome of this series.
X Factor: Draymond Green: Based on the above, it's pretty clear how important Green will be in this series. He can cover multiple positions, is an effective rebounder, but also has the talent to push the ball up the court. His versatility on both ends of the court gives the Warriors an added advantage. If he is on his game, he could put up a performance that was reminiscent of Boris Diaw last season for the Spurs.
MVP: Steph Curry. I know — I am going out on a limb here. But Curry is so good at so many things, and I just don't think the Cavs have anyone that can stop him (even LeBron James admitted you cannot stop Curry). If they put Irving on Curry, Curry will eat them alive. If they put Shumpert on Curry, then that leaves Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson against Irving. Regardless, the Warriors have an advantage. But I think Curry is just playing on a level by himself right now. His shooting, ball handling, and relentless movement off the ball are going to create headaches for the Cavs all series.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors in 6. Normally I go with the team with the best player in any series. If the Cavs had a healthy Irving and Kevin Love, I would likely stick to that rule of thumb. But the Warriors are just too deep and talented of a team right now. I think they could win in 5, but I am hedging my bets and going Warriors in 6.
