As you know, the most important day of the Philadelphia 76ers’ season is tomorrow. Essentially, the whole “tanking”…I mean “rebuilding”…campaign comes down to how the ping pong balls will pop tomorrow evening.
We all know that the Sixers’ have the second-most chances to win the lottery at 19.9%. Essentially, they have a 19.9% of getting Andrew Wiggins, or your favorite other prospect such as Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid or Julius Randle. But, what you may not know is that they have a better shot of falling outside of the top-three than remaining in it.
Here is the probability for each team and where they would fall in the lottery. The Sixers, owners of the 2nd-worst record, are the “No. 2” seed. They can fall no lower than five, in the event that three teams outside the top-3 all jump into it.
As you can see, the chances are the Sixers end up with the fourth overall pick—a 32% probability. The way the lottery is, they actually have a better chance than having the first overall pick than the second or third overall picks. If it’s “Wiggins, Parker or bust”, well Sam Hinkie and company only have a 61.3% of coming up short.
The last time the No. 2 seed in the lottery, or team with the second-most chances of winning, actually was the Sixers back in 1996. That actually also happens to be the last time they did win the lottery, when they selected Allen Iverson with the top pick. They can only hope to be as fortunate to get the next Iverson-like franchise icon.
Another thing to keep an eye on tonight is to make sure the New Orleans Pelicans, the No. 10 seed, do not move into the top-3. If they do, the Sixers would have to send back their first round pick, and it defers for another year as it is top-five protected. New Orleans only has a 4% chance of cracking the top three selections, and if not they would not retain the pick. The pick also has a 9.1% chance of falling back to 11-13. It is imperative the Sixers get the pick this year and not have to put off receiving the top-five protected pick until next year as New Orleans is primed to do better than tenth-worst next season. Anthony Davis figures to improve and they will also have former 76er Jrue Holliday for a full season.
Here is a list of the teams in the lottery, ordered by “Seed number”:
1. Milwaukee Bucks 25.0%
2. Philadelphia 76ers 19.9%
3. Orlando Magic 15.6%
4. Utah Jazz 10.4%
5. Boston Celtics 10.3%
6. Los Angeles Lakers 6.3%
7. Sacramento Kings 4.3%
8. Detroit Pistons* 2.8%
9. Cleveland Cavaliers 1.7%
10. New Orleans Pelicans* 1.1%
11. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) 0.8%
12. Orlando Magic (via Denver Nuggets) 0.7%
13. Minnesota Timberwolves 0.6%
14. Phoenix Suns 0.5%
