Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
If you want a clear example of why Philadelphia has the best sports fans in the world, consider the following:
As of around 12 p.m. today, #OneSixEleven was one of the top items trending world wide on Twitter.
This hashtag represents the historic coup the Sixers could yield if the lottery gods smile favorably on them.
Specifically, the Sixers could conceivably land the number one overall pick by virtue of their pick (15.60%).
The Sixers could get the Lakers pick (thanks to the Michael Carter-Williams trade) if the Lakers drop out of the top 5. There is a 16.03% chance that the Lakers pick sixth, and a 1.25% chance they drop all the way to seventh. Either scenario means the Sixers would get the pick.
Finally, the Sixers could conceivably get the Miami Heat pick (thanks to the Thaddeus Young trade) if a team from 11-13 jumps into the top three picks of the draft. The Heat pick is top 10 protected, which means the Sixers would get it if Miami drafted 11, 12, or 13th. There is a 8.88% chance the Heat pick 11, a .08% chance they pick 12, and a .001% chance they pick 13.
Keith Pompey shared this helpful chart from the NBA on the draft lottery odds:
Here are the #NBADraftLottery odds provided by the #NBA pic.twitter.com/DveqEJQFST
— Keith Pompey (@PompeyOnSixers) May 19, 2015
Combined, the Sixers have a .28% chance of landing the first, sixth, and 11th overall picks in this draft. So the odds are not in the Sixers favor.
However, the odds are in the Sixers favor of landing a good pick. I have said repeatedly that this is a draft with four potentially franchise caliber players: Karl Anthony-Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell, and Emmanuel Mudiay. While you can debate the ceiling of each of these prospects, it seems pretty clear that they have All-Star caliber potential.
If the Sixers land the number four overall pick, they could conceivably end up with Russell or Mudiay. Both players represent clear upgrades over Michael Carter-Williams.
Russell is a smooth shooting, 6-5 lefty that is a great passer to boot. He has drawn comparisons to James Harden and Steph Curry, and has been heavily linked to the Sixers during the draft process.
Mudiay is a lesser known quantity because he skipped college to play basketball overseas in China. He reportedly turned off NBA scouts when he refused to meaningfully participate in the Scouting Combine in Chicago last week, which could cause his stock to drop. However, he has drawn comparisons to John Wall based on his size and elite athleticism. While he can stand to improve his j, make no mistake: he projects as a potential elite point guard.
I want the top pick. It opens up a world of possibilities for the Sixers — taking Karl Anthony-Towns and trading another big for an additional pick in this draft, or trading back to the third pick and landing the prospect we really want (Russell) along with additional assets.
But as long as we stay in the top four, we should be okay.
Of course, even if we land the fifth overall pick (which we actually have the highest odds of doing), it might not be the end of the world. The Hinkster could always package future picks (the Sixers have four projected first rounders next season), and a player (Noel?) to move up into the top three.
Or he could stand pat and land Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis, a 7-1 220-pound international prospect who has been described as a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki. Not too shabby if you ask me.
The suspense of where the Sixers pick will end tonight around approximately 8:30 pm. But then the fun really begins.
