At 37-51, the Phillies are on a runaway train to nowhere, and ain't coming back. That's not promising for the future. The system is actually kinda barren in the minors too, which is also not too promising. That doesn't mean there's nothing to watch, or no one to watch though. By position, here's what I'm watching moving forward.
- Outfield- In the immediate term, you're watching Darin Ruf and Grady Sizemore, and determining if one or both can help the Phillies out now. It's time to part ways with at least one of Mayberry or Gwynn, and to cut into the playing time of Brown and Revere. If these two are showing you anything, you bring them up. Beyond them, there are several prospects in the medium term range to watch. Leandro Castro is in a "make or break" season in AAA, and has got some time in center this season. He had a pretty decent June with the bat, and has to show more this year. Cam Perkins has struggled early on in AAA, but that only means he's being challenged, so you hope he turns the corner at some point this year, though he'd certainly get another shot next year too. Aaron Altherr hasn't dominated in Reading this year, but after his brief cups of coffee in the majors, and a solid June in AA, you hope to see the light-bulb go on now. Kelly Dugan is back in Reading as well, and had a pair of multi-hit games this month, so you hope that he finishes strong. Peter Lavin has played decently well in Clearwater and Reading, so he is another story to watch play out. Zach Collier has struggled royally and really needs to show something soon. Roman Quinn has made the move to centerfield, and returned from a torn achilles, and is doing decently. Realistically, he needs to show he's healthy this year, and show some baby steps this year, as the injury and position switch will make this a tough year for him. Beyond that, Carlos Tocci has struggled a bit in Lakewood, and is a ways off. Aaron Brown, drafted this year out of Pepperdine, is off to a .303 start (.711 OPS) in Williamsport, and could move fast. Cord Sandberg, a more raw player drafted last year, is hitting .313 with an .851 OPS in the outfield there, while Jiandido Tromp has 6 homers, a .295 average, and a .970 OPS. None of these guys below Clearwater belong on the radar yet, but are worth watching. Closely watch Altherr, Dugan, Perkins, and Castro, as they could factor into next year's team right now, with Lavin and Quinn as dark horses. Collier, and certainly Castro, are kind of fighting for their futures here the rest of the way.
- Starting Pitching- The AAA level is pretty dead here, but do watch Jason Marquis in the coming weeks, as he's throwing the ball well there. I'd imagine he'll come up if they trade an arm or two at the deadline. Brad Lincoln has thrown well as a starter there as well, but really isn't in the mix moving forward in that role, in my opinion. The AA level isn't promising either right now, as the only "positive" could be that Severino Gonzalez is showing an ability to eat innings and be healthy there. He's good one start, and bad the next. Jesse Biddle has bombed out here again, and that's a concern. I'm watching Mark Leiter Jr. and Aaron Nola at the Clearwater level the rest of the way, as they're the most promising things there, and I doubt either even has a chance to figure in before 2016. In Williamsport, Mitch Guellar just threw seven shut out innings in his last start, and is having a nice start to the season, as is David Whitehead, a later round 2013 pick. Second rounder Matt Imhof made his debut and threw three innings of one run ball, so we'll see how his progress goes. The reality is that you have to hope they get Biddle right, and that the guys in the lower minors- Leiter, Nola, Guellar, Whitehead, and Imhof, all progress quickly. Also, watch how Adam Morgan returns later this month and next, as he could possibly play into 2015.
- Infield- Here's the bad news- Maikel Franco is the only player in AAA right now who has a long-term future for the Phillies, and he's struggled a lot this year. The good news? He's had four, two, and three hits the last three days, so maybe he's coming on strong now. The Phillies clearly pushed him hard and challenged him, and there's nothing wrong with that, but he's not going to help this year. Below him, you have to go to Clearwater, and J.P. Crawford, to find a guy likely to figure into the long-term plans. He's struggled a bit in the FSL, but that's to be expected after a promotion this fast. Remember, he's a year out from being drafted, and he's up to High-A, he's being challenged for the first time. Andrew Pullin in Lakewood is showing impressive offense from second base, posting a six homer, .276 average so far there. Basically, watch Franco and Crawford, and when he returns, Freddy Galvis. Otherwise, everything is far off.
- Catching- Rupp's in the majors, Valle is providing decently steady defense but not much else in AAA, and Joseph has been hurt with a sore wrist. Joseph may be back in Reading soon, hopefully, as he was having a decent year. Raywilly Gomez (who has the coolest name in the system) is not off to a fast start in Reading, but was putting up decent numbers in the DBacks system before. Andrew Knapp is having a nice season in Lakewood, hitting .286 as the primary catcher, while Williamsport's Deivi Grullon is off to a nice .281 start there since being re-assigned. Basically, watch the upper level guys to get a sense of how they rate out, with a special eye on how Joseph finishes out. Watch the young guys and hope to find a diamond in the rough.
- Relief Pitching- Ethan Martin is struggling with his command, a real problem. He's the guy to watch currently in AAA. Luis Garcia has been lights out there, but he's a AAAA type. Tyler Knigge has been pretty good so far this year in both AA and AAA, though he has to sustain that to be really considered. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, that MAG you remember, is throwing well in Reading so far out of the bullpen. Kyle Simon and Seth Rosin are both throwing well there as well. Matt Hockenberry, drafted this year out of Temple, is worth watching as he tries to make it in Lakewood. Beyond that, the low minors are just too far away to figure out for relievers yet. Basically, the Phillies need to get Martin right, get MAG right, and figure out if Simon or Rosin has a future. Knigge and Garcia are somewhat enigmas so far, but that's the best worth watching. Oh, and Phillippe Aumont is still here, if you care.
None of the minor league teams are terribly good. Williamsport maybe can do well, we hope, and Lehigh Valley isn't totally dead yet. With that said, the system could get an influx of talent in the coming weeks from dealing away big leaguers, and that could change things. You have to be worried though, as the bad things seem to be far too common in this system. Jesse Biddle's command issues are eerily similar to Brody Colvin's issues that caused him to be released this year. Aumont and B.J. Rosenberg both throw hard, but get hit harder at the higher levels. Zach Collier looks a lot like Tyson Gillies did, and he's gone now. Is there something wrong in the development here, or were these flawed prospects to begin with, that the Phillies sold as worthy of 40 man spots and big signing bonuses? I don't know. Hopefully we'll see some improvement this Summer.
