The Phillies haven't been to the playoffs in three seasons, haven't been .500 in two, and are coming off back-to-back 89 loss seasons. Things are pretty rough, and the possibility of selling off this off-season (or for that matter not), means a team that is likely not going to be great in 2015. The Phillies have $132 million committed to the 2015 team now, a team that currently features aging players on the backside of their career. I don't know what to expect for 2015 yet, but in my mind I can see anything from .500 to 100 losses.
Now, the good news. First, the Nationals payroll is expected to finally pass the Phillies in 2015. So what, they have rich owners, right? While that's true, their revenue stream is nowhere near the Phillies, and that means it's taxing them right out of their pockets to pay their currently projected $145 million payroll. Secondly, in the coming years, the Nats will have to start paying out to keep the Strasburgs, Zimmermans, Harpers, Desmonds, and Rendons of the world, to name a few. In other words, those guys are either leaving, or they become a lot more expensive. Top that off with them not reaching the Phillies' 45,000 per game heights in attendance, and you see why that's a struggle for them.
The Braves payroll is also projected to hit $100 million in 2015, based on their current payroll and arbitration. The Braves can simply not sustain that very long with their mediocre attendance and lack of playoff success. Guys like Kimbrel, Freeman, and Heyward will get paid soon, to name a few. While a Braves fan might talk about dumping B.J. Upton, or both Uptons, that's not that easy to do.
The Mets payroll will climb back to $90 million, and this can go either way. The Mets future obligations are larger than the Phillies. Now, a Mets optimist will point out that they are a New York team, and that the Willets Point re-development is coming to provide revenue. On the other hand, it's the Mets ownership. Maybe more pressing for the Mets is that while they are stacked with young pitching, they desperately need some young bats on that team. This will probably require them trading some of their pitching depth, which deflates that advantage. The Mets might be really good moving forward, but they might not too.
The Marlins? Well, I like their young squad. They should be in a good position- until they have to pay any of them. Then they'll blow the team up, again, because their owner isn't committed to winning, and they don't bring enough people in the gate. So while they're talented, let's see a business plan.
With all of that, what about the Phillies? Well, I think they will resolve Howard's situation this Winter somehow, and Marlon Byrd is likely to be traded. I'd sell high on Ben Revere, and I'd try harder to convince at least Chase Utley to take a trade now. I'd go further than that, but you get the idea that I'm all for a sell-off, and actually, I think the front-office finally is too. I'd be careful about trading Cole Hamels, but they already know that too. If he goes, with Gillick back around, I'm sure the Phillies will both move all of his money and get a nice package. This could lead to a tough 2015. It could not.
I think Maikel Franco has to be the third baseman in 2015, despite what the team says about it, after watching him be the International League's equivalent of a Gold Glove winner at the hot corner. Sure, they should find ways to get Cody Asche at-bats, but Franco represents a big piece of this team being good again. Franco, J.P. Crawford, and Roman Quinn all are future high in the order bats if they reach their upside, and all are showing progress. Obviously if the Phillies land Yasmany Tomas, that speeds up the timeline to get back to prominence, and provides a fourth bat. Finding a spot for Asche, figuring out what Darin Ruf is, and moving on from the current outfield are all crucial to the future as well, but all are doable in 2015. While they will pay a lot of money in 2015, the future obligations of the Phillies are about average at this point, and you can see an easy way to rebuild as a big market.
Here's my main point though- even if the Phillies trade Hamels, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Papelbon, and Byrd, that doesn't make 2015 any worse. They were a 90 loss team with these guys, at worst they're a few games worse in 2015, but free of many of their financial obligations moving forward. Are they really any worse with Franco and Ruf in the 2015 line-up? Are they really any worse replacing anyone on this roster? I will always be a fan of Utley and Rollins, but they played every day and we lost 89 games in 2014. We're probably not much worse, if at all, without them. Then you start looking forward, and see the arrival of some of the higher end prospects, who while not numerous, are very good, and you see hope. Add on the considerable financial muscle the Phillies possess compared to just about anyone in the division, and you can see a future that is really only around three years away, not the five to ten that some people are talking about.
