Well, the Phillies completed the first third of the season on Sunday afternoon with their 4-3 extra innings loss. The Phillies are 24-30, which computes out to a 72-90 record for the season, one game worse than last season. Their bullpen has ten losses, which computes out to 30 losses for the season, effectively making it the single biggest reason they are on a 72 win pace, and not a 90 win pace thus far.
Before the season, I identified a few players who would be crucial to this team being good. One of them was Ryan Howard. Ryan Howard has been healthy, and has played 53 games, second on the team, good for a 159 game pace. His batting average is an ugly .229, and he has struck out 68 times, good for a 204 pace. His OPS is a respectable .735, but that's possibly not good enough. What has been good from Howard? 11 homers and 39 RBI's, good for a pace of 33 homers and 117 RBI's. His 21 doubles pace needs to rise a bit, but on the whole, Howard hasn't been a net-negative so far. He just hasn't been enough of a positive either, for some.
Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the other core pieces, have been decent too. Chase has hit .320, with a .898 OPS, which are some All-Star worthy numbers. His four homers, 27 RBI's, 22 doubles, and 3 triples compute out to a 12-81-66-9 split. Jimmy has hit .251, with a .749 OPS, mashing 6 homers, 7 doubles, and 2 triples. That's an 18-21-6 split, which is excellent from a shortstop. The old guys haven't maybe been 2008 worthy, but they're not the problem.
Dom Brown has been the problem, on the other hand. In 52 games, he's "mashed" his way to a .205 average, and an absolutely putrid .577 OPS. His four homers leave him on pace for a dozen, a horrible number for him. His outfield mate, Ben Revere, on the surface looks better. He did hit his first MLB homer, putting him on pace for three (which he won't hit), and he is hitting .284, and yes, he has 15 steals, putting him on pace for 45. His .299 OBP and 3 triples leaves a lot to be desired though.
Marlon Byrd has been a solid enough player though in his return to town, playing all 54 games, posting 17 doubles and 8 homers so far, a pace of 51 and 24. His 32 RBI's put him on pace for 96, and he's on pace for 174 hits with his .278 average. His 66 strikeouts are a bit alarming though, putting him on pace for 198 this season.
The other two starters, Chooch and Asche, have been decent, if nothing more. Cody's on the DL, but posted 4 homers and a .771 OPS, not bad numbers. Chooch has 13 doubles, a .290 average, and an .810 OPS, all of which are good. He's hit one homer though, leaving lots to be desired.
Then there's the awful bench. Tony Gwynn Jr. has played in 46 games somehow, and is hitting .169 with a .476 OPS, two doubles, and 16 K's in 77 AB's. His offensive value is, to play on words, offensive. John Mayberry Jr. is just as bad basically, hitting .224, but somehow posting a .773 OPS. He has 11 K's in 49 AB's, an awful number. Cesar Hernandez (.156-.469), Reid Brignac (.167-.485), and Wil Nieves (.268-.700) aren't lighting it up either.
The starting pitching has been decent, if unspectacular. Cliff Lee was 4-4, with a 3.18 ERA in his ten starts before the DL. He threw 68 innings and punched out 61 while walking 9. He was giving up a lot more hits than normal though, a worry. Cole Hamels, the other big piece in this rotation, missed the opening month, but is 1-3, with a 4.01 ERA in 8 games since. Hamels started slow though, and now has 52 K's in 51.2 innings after today. It's hard to project out either's numbers with their DL stints in there. A.J. Burnett is on pace to start 36 games this year though, throw 221 innings, and strike out 192 guys. He's also got a 3.79 ERA though. Kyle Kendrick is on 205 innings pace, and Roberto Hernandez is on 158 innings pace. Hernandez has done some work in the bullpen though.
The bullpen has been ugly though. Papelbon is posting a nice season, with 13 saves in 14 opportunities, a 1.61 ERA, and 19 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. Adams has been great too, posting a 2.16 ERA so far, and is on a tear now. His 19 strikeouts in 16.2 innings is pretty impressive so far. Mario Hollands has brought it together nicely too now, posting a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings so far. Antonio Bastardo has stunk, walking 20 in 25.2 innings so far. Jake Diekman appears to be recovering from a putrid start, getting his ERA back down to 3.86, while striking out 37 in 28 innings. Beyond that though, you can see things fall apart statistically.
I think the area that is set for the biggest course correction is the bullpen. Diekman is improving, Adams should pitch the next third of the season, and Hollands has come along nicely. That's a serious upgrade if it all happens. The rotation is getting shakier, as Burnett has struggled a bit of late, but it's still not the biggest issue on this team, though Lee being out a prolonged amount of time could wreck them too. The two biggest liabilities to me appear to be the awful bench, with little to no ability on it, and the outfield, which has 2/3 stunk. Getting those positions corrected could go a long way to making this team competitive.
