The market for Cole Hamels is picking up. Even though that seems weird, it's true. Boston is now more sure of what it can move, and what it wants to spend. Los Angeles now knows what it needs. Others are now more sure of the market in which they are operating. Teams want to get deals done soon now, as merchandise selling season, and the winter meetings, are ahead.
So, if the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, what would the package look like. I'll give you a look at the prospects the Phillies should get back from several suitors, and what kind of package you can hope for:
Los Angeles Dodgers
- The Phillies would start by asking for Joc Pederson, an outfielder who is considered LA's top prospect. The alternative to Pederson is Corey Seager, the number two prospect, a shortstop with a good bat, who some see as a third baseman because of his very solid arm. Normally I'd say LA will go Seager, but the exit of Hanley Ramirez and an overly deep outfield make me doubt it.
- Next, the Phillies would have to get either Julio Urias or Zach Lee, the third and fourth rated prospects in the system. Urias, a lefty, is younger and further away, but has stuff that makes GM's drool. Lee has been highly rated for a few years, and is closer, but the righty 23 year old did not dominate AAA this year.
- Next, the Dodgers would without question attempt to get the Phillies to take a major league outfielder off of their hands. No, it won't be Puig, as the Dodgers will try to get the Phillies to take Ethier or Crawford off of their hands. Perhaps the Phillies would rather Matt Kemp, but I'd basically run from Ethier.
- Finally, the Phillies would probably take a fourth prospect in this deal as well, looking at the likes of five other pitchers in the Dodgers top ten, or high end athlete James Baldwin III.
- In short, I'd walk away thrilled with only three players if two of them are Pederson and Urias. I doubt LA will do that though, so if you get Pederson, take Lee, and if you get Seager, insist on Urias. My ideal outcome would probably be a Pederson, Lee, OF'er (obviously I prefer Kemp, but doubt that), and one of the other top ten arms.
Boston Red Sox
- While I was very down on a deal with Boston, now that they've went on a spending spree, their willingness to kick in the extra prospect has probably improved. This deal should start a top pitching prospect named Henry Owens, a lefty who has now reached the upper levels of the minors. The alternative to Owens is another pair of lefties named Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson. The Phillies should stick on Owens though, as he is my favorite prospect in Boston's system.
- Next is the big position prospect, and there are many options here. Either Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez are catching options, Mookie Betts could be considered an outfielder or second baseman, and Xander Boagerts could play at either left-side infield position. Betts as a second baseman is the most enticing to me of the group, followed by the catchers.
- Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks could be considered in a potential deal as well. Consider them against other pitching prospects Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo.
- Finally, Boston will almost certainly want to move someone from their crowded outfield. I'd obviously love for it to be Rusney Castillo, but that won't happen. You're looking at a Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Yoenis Cespedes type of field.
- If this deal is to happen, you have to get two of Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Betts, and Boagerts, with a strong bias towards Owens being one of them, to me. I could settle for a Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Bradley, and any of the OF'er package.
Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs are loaded with big time prospects, from Javier Baez, to Addison Russell, to Arismendy Alcantara who play up the middle. They also have Starlin Castro already there. The ability to get a minimum of one of these guys in a deal has to be there.
- Next is the logjam at third base for the Cubs moving forward. Top prospect Kris Bryant is a third baseman, as is Mike Olt, a player the Phillies have long coveted from his times as a Rangers top prospect. The Phillies could reasonably get one of these two as well.
- The Phillies will want Aroldys Vizcaino or Jorge Soler in this deal. Both have made it up to the big leagues now, and would be tough to get. 20 year old Albert Almora, an OF'er, did struggle a bit in AA this year, but could be an option, as could C.J. Edwards, a righty who just had a strong AFL season.
- Right-hander Pierce Johnson and first-baseman Dan Vogelbach could be options for the Phillies as well.
- My ideal deal would bring Russell, Olt, Almora, and Johnson to Philadelphia. My sense though is that Chicago won't rush into that deal early in the off-season.
St. Louis Cardinals
- I would have wanted to start this deal for Shelby Miller, but that is no longer an option. Carlos Martinez is now the top arm available here, and has a big league season under his belt. Marco Gonzales wouldn't be a bad pick either.
- Stephen Piscotty would be the top target for the Phillies positionally, especially coming off of a good year in AAA ball. He would almost have to be in this deal.
- Alex Reyes, a fire-baller, and Tim Cooney, a control freak, are both decent options to look at. Rob Kaminsky is also an option here.
- Randal Grichuk and Charlie Tilson could be options as minor league outfielders go, but for that matter, the Phillies have always liked both Bourjos and Jay from their big league roster.
- My ideal deal is Piscotty, Martinez, Reyes, and Grichuk, but my guess is that if you got the first two, you're looking at Bourjos and one of the rest.
Toronto Blue Jays
- This deal would start with either Dan Norris or Aaron Sanchez, both of whom reached the bigs at age 21, after advancing several levels through the minors. It's a matter of whether you want a lefty or a righty at the top of this deal really.
- Next would be outfielder Dalton Pompey, who also reached the big leagues after advancing across several minor league stops.
- While very young, catcher Max Pentecost and pitcher Jeff Hoffman have tremendous upside and would interest the Phillies.
- Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both MLB ready starters, and the Phillies have been linked to Nolin before.
- I'd be looking for Norris, Pompey, Pentecost, and Nolin from Toronto, which is a steep haul for them, given their reliance on home-grown talent. We'd probably have to throw someone else into this deal to make it work.
Cleveland Indians
- Another team who's been linked to interest lately, they have both a solid system and a young team. They have a log-jam in the middle infield, with 2013 All-Star Jason Kipnis (just 27) coming off of a rough season, Jose Ramirez having taken over the job at short, and top prospect Francisco Lindor at short in AAA. One would have to be in the deal.
- Outfielder Bradley Zimmer was the 21st overall pick in last year's draft, and could be a piece the Phillies want, as could Mike Papi, another high pick last year.
- Lefty T.J. House would most likely have to be in the deal. Cleveland won't want to part with Justus Sheffield.
- Catcher Francisco Mejia and first baseman Bobby Bradley are very young, but show promise. Clint Frazier is also young, and rates out even better.
- Ramirez or Kipnis, Zimmer, House, and any of the kids would make a nice package.
