Phillies' Shane Victorino to Appear Live for a Full Hour on the Mike Missanelli Show
Phillies Lose Ryan Madson to the DL... Uh, Now What?

Guy Who Caught Two Foul Balls Sunday is the Same Guy Werth F-Bombed

Posted by Frank Klose


Remember this incident last year?   Well, it turns out that this fan, Patrick Boyle, was the lucky fan yesterday who caught not one, but two, according to NBC Philadelphia.

Kelly Bayliss of NBCPhiladelphia did some fancy math to determine the liklihood:

Based on an report, approximately 30 to 40 foul balls are hit into the stands during any given game. We decided to go with an average of 35 balls per game. Divide that by the Phillies attendance average over the last five years (43,489) and you get 1,233. That means during any game, a fan has a one in 1,233 chance of catching a foul ball at Citizens Bank Park.

They declined to do the odds of someone catching two, so here's a shot:

Following NBC's odds that are 1 in 1,233 that you will catch a foul ball, then that person would be 1 in 1,520,289 to catch two in one game.

However - NBC's math counted every fan in attendance as having an equal chance at a baseball.  My season tickets in 432 certainly have incredibly smaller odds than the fans in 128 down the line.

AND - the odds of foul ball placement would depend on the starting pitcher, and change as pitchers change. 

So to do the correct calculation, we would have to see how likely that particular seat that Boyle has is to get a foul ball to begin with in any given Roy Halladay start where pitches all nine innings. 

So, x squared = desired odds. 

I am guessing that the liklihood of Jayson Werth cursing at you is much more likely

Click here to see the video on


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)