2018 looks like it will be kind year to former Phillies on Hall of Fame ballot

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

If early returns in 2018 are any indication, the BBWAA's Hall of Fame ballots figure to be kinder to former Philadelphia Phillies than they have in recent years. 

That doesn't mean the Phillies will have four new Hall of Famers in 2018 – but it does mean each of their notable former players on the ballot could receive more votes in 2018 than they did in 2017. 

Jim Thome, by default, will have more votes on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2018 than he did in 2017, because it is his first year on the ballot. Currently, 36.8 percent of the 2018 ballots have been made public to Ryan Thibodaux, and 94.9 percent of those ballots have cast votes for Thome. Thome, who is one of nine players in MLB history with over 600 home runs, needs just 63.4 percent of votes on remaining ballots to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. 

Thome's former Phillies teammate, Scott Rolen, is also in his first year on the ballot. Even if the former National League Rookie of the Year received a vote on every remaining ballot, he wouldn't be elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Still, Rolen has received 10.3 percent of votes on public ballots. That puts him well above the five percent needed to stay on the ballot for another year, and he's likely to get enough votes from remaining voters to do so. 

Last month, I wrote on why I believe that Rolen should be elected to the Hall of Fame. The gist of that piece is that the seven-time All-Star – who also won eight Gold Glove Awards – is over the threshold for the average advanced statistics of Hall of Fame third basemen: 

Third Base JAWS Leaders

Table

Rk Name WAR WAR7 JAWS Yrs From To ASG
1 Mike Schmidt HOF 106.5 58.5 82.5 18 1972 1989 12
2 Eddie Mathews HOF 96.4 54.4 75.4 17 1952 1968 12
3 Wade Boggs HOF 91.1 56.2 73.6 18 1982 1999 12
4 Adrian Beltre 93.9 49.7 71.8 20 1998 2017 4
5 George Brett HOF 88.4 53.2 70.8 21 1973 1993 13
6 Chipper Jones 85.0 46.6 65.8 19 1993 2012 8
7 Ron Santo HOF 70.4 53.8 62.1 15 1960 1974 9
8 Brooks Robinson HOF 78.4 45.8 62.1 23 1955 1977 18
9 Paul Molitor HOF 75.4 39.6 57.5 21 1978 1998 7
10 Scott Rolen 70.0 43.5 56.8 17 1996 2012 7
11 Edgar Martinez 68.3 43.6 56.0 18 1987 2004 7
  Avg of 13 HOFers at this position 67.5 42.8 55.2        
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2018.

Though Rolen is a ways away from receiving the 75 percent of votes necessary for election, he should be encouraged by the progress that both Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez have made on the ballot. Walker has received 41 percent of votes thus far, which is nearly double the 21.9 percent of the vote that he garnered just a year ago. Walker has been on the ballot since 2011 and hovered around 22 percent each year. Since then, his numbers haven't changed, but the grassroots Hall of Fame case that's been built for him clearly has caused some voters to look deeper into his case. If the public ballots currently available decided the Hall of Fame class, Martinez would be in with over 80 percent of the vote. This comes after him receiving 36.2 percent of the vote in 2010, his first year on the ballot. Again, the internet has clearly helped the cases of some of the game's more underappreciated recent greats, and Rolen may be the next in line to receive that treatment. 

Another candidate for a grassroots surge up the ballot is former Phillies closer Billy Wagner, who received 10.2 percent of the vote in 2017. Wagner has received just under 11 percent of the vote thus far, which should allow him to stay on the ballot for another year. 

Wagner has an interesting case. While Trevor Hoffman, who finished his career with 122 more saves than Wagner, is likely to earn induction into the Hall of Fame this year, Wagner's case hasn't taken off yet. Perhaps there's something wrong with that, because while Wagner doesn't have the same longevity argument that Hoffman does, he had a 16-year career (and probably could have played for longer had he decided to) and has a lower career ERA, FIP and xFIP than Hoffman (per FanGraphs)

After the results of the 2017 Hall of Fame election were released, Wagner suggested to SportsTalkPhilly.com that perhaps more than just writers should vote on the Hall of Fame. 

"I once heard a writer say he wouldn't vote for Hoffman because he pitched on the West Coast, like those games don't count. Writers on the East Coast have a hard time appreciating Hoffman because of where he pitched. Also how many East Coast writers stayed up to watch the West Coast games? It's hard to value guys you aren't around," Wagner opined. "Having players and managers vote would give Hall of Fame voting perspective. Ask Derek Jeter how was it to face Billy Wagner. Whether I'm valued as a closer isn't important, but the position is important because if you ask any manager, they hate to lose a game at the end when they had been winning."
 
 
Whether former players or coaches should have any say on the Hall of Fame ballot is an interesting debate to have. For the foreseeable future, the BBWAA will be the only ones with a vote on the Hall of Fame. Wagner looks as though he might see a slight increase in the amount of votes that he receives in 2018. Perhaps the will be the start of him seeing a significant rise in the voting totals that he receives moving forward. 
 
And then there's Curt Schilling. 
 
Schilling's outspoken political and social takes have hurt him in recent years, right or wrong. Even if former players were voting, Schilling may not gain election to the Hall of Fame. He rubbed a lot of players the wrong way, probably for different reasons than he rubs media members the wrong way. Should how someone is viewed as a person affect their Hall of Fame case? Probably not, Ty Cobb is in the Hall of Fame after all. But does how a candidate is viewed as a candidate is viewed as a person affect whether some voters choose to vote for them? You bet.
 
Perhaps the biggest battle that Schilling faces is that a percentage of voters have bought into the false narrative that even prior to him becoming outspoken about non-baseball issues, he was only a fringe Hall of Fame candidate based off of his career accomplishments. That's simply not true. 
 
Schilling finished his career with a better WAR 7 or JAWS than first-ballot Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Nolan Ryan. He's also one of the five greatest postseason pitchers ever. I've always operated under the assumption that lack of extended postseason experience shouldn't be held against someone like Hoffman, but should work in the favor of someone like Schilling, who thrived on baseball's highest stage consistently. 
 
 
Of the ballots publicly available at this time, Schilling has received 66.7 percent of the vote, which would be up from 45.0 percent in 2016. Schilling actually saw a dip in votes last year after receiving 52.3 percent in 2016. 
 
If the publicly available ballots decided the Hall of Fame class, the 2018 Hall of Fame class would be Thome, Martinez, Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero. Mike Mussina is within striking distance of the 75 percent needed for election, as are Schilling, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. 
 
The BBWAA will announce the 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame class on Jan. 24. 
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